Iraq: One Decision, Two Presidential Promises Kept
Iraq moves to the periphery of foreign policy
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General Ray Odierno, commander of multi-national forces Iraq, has confidence that Iraqis are prepared to deal with being primary security forces in their cities. However, the fact that he still points to Iran as a "meddler" proves that President Obama will still have Iraq on his hot plate for several more years.
In this media-intensive cynical era, getting to see one presidential promise kept is somewhat out of the ordinary. Two in one day? Remarkable. Two promises from different presidents fulfilled on the same day? Unheard of.
Strange, but that's sort of what happened this week as U.S. forces in Iraq withdrew from major cities. That doesn't seem like a huge change. But it is still significant. For one thing, it solidifies the government of President Nouri Al-Maliki -- as a sovereign government able to protect its own citizens. Of course, there are still upwards of 130,000 U.S. troops still in the country, but an important message is being sent that urban centers -- home to much of the educated classes -- are being run with security that is Iraqi-controlled. And Iraqis are bearing the brunt of any continued violence.
But more importantly, this is a much stronger sense that George W. Bush's much-maligned "Mission Accomplished" photo-op six years ago is closer to reality. In 2003, as Bush landed on the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, Iraq was about to explode violently from a well-planned insurgency. For nearly four years, bombings everywhere -- in cities and in the countryside -- left thousands of Iraqis and American servicemen and women dead. It also dealt fatal wounds to the political popularity of both congressional Republicans and President Bush. Not until the appointment of Gen. David Petraeus and the launch of the surge did the insurgency get beaten back.
But, if history tells us anything, it's that it is almost impossible for the party that starts unpopular wars to end them. Democrat Harry Truman started the Korean War; Republican Dwight Eisenhower wound it down. Democrats Kennedy and Johnson got the country struck in Vietnam; Republicans Nixon and Ford got us out (unsatisfying as the exit may have been). Democrat Obama isn't going to say "Mission Accomplished" a la his Republican predecessor. But there is now an acceptable level of conflict in Iraq now that that allows Americans to begin withdrawal in something close to an honorable fashion. We're not doing a "last helicopter out of Saigon" moment. In that way, this is the start of the fulfillment of Bush's promise with respect to Iraq.
Obama's promise, of course, is to bring troops home. That's not happening yet, but the administration can point to the troop relocation as, at least, the beginning of the beginning of the end. But, Obama may find himself fulfilling a campaign pledge that he hadn't planned on. As Afghanistan (which had been seen as "won") continues to heat up because of the Taliban's launching attacks from Pakistan, troops from Iraq may be barely home before being re-deployed to Afghanistan, the venerable graveyard of empires. Yet, in doing this, he is being consistent with his campaign analysis of where U.S. "war on terror" resources should be committed.
Furthermore, as the US troop presence decreases in Iraq, who benefits? It's not necessarily (solely) the United States. There'll be several years of awkward communication between invader (the U.S.) and the invaded (Iraq). While the political/psychological issues between the two countries get worked out, Iran is salivating.
The post-election chaos has shaken Iran up a fair bit. But not so much that the leaders don't recognize the strategic interests of having an oil-producing Muslim giant on its border. And it's using that proximity: Odierno declares flatly that Iranians are still "interfering" with the mission. Agents of Tehran are helping train insurgents or paying other to help make trouble.
The sad irony of Iraq is that, even as Obama superficially fulfills both a Bush promise and one of his own, there are still far more headaches than remedies facing the United States in the Gulf region over the next several years.
New York writer Robert A. George blogs at Ragged Thots. Follow him on Twitter.
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Posted Saturday, Jul 18, 2009 - 5:37 PM EST
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