<![CDATA[NBC Connecticut - Connecticut Weather News and Coverage]]>Copyright 2017http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories http://media.nbcnewyork.com/designimages/NBC_Connecticut.png NBC Connecticut http://www.nbcconnecticut.comen-usWed, 22 Feb 2017 12:45:13 -0500Wed, 22 Feb 2017 12:45:13 -0500NBC Owned Television Stations <![CDATA[Today's Forecast]]> //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/first+alert_weather+1200.jpg

Today: A mix of sun and clouds after a few early showers in the morning. Highs in the low to middle 50s.

Tonight: Areas of fog forming. Lows in the 40s. 

Thursday: Partly sunny skies and warm. Highs in the low to middle 60s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers. Highs near 60.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain during the afternoon and evening. Highs near 60.

Sunday: Partly sunny skies and cooler. Highs in the low to middle 40s.

Monday: Partly sunny skies. Highs in the low to middle 40s.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies. Chance of rain or snow. Highs in the upper 30s inland and low 40s at the shore.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies. Chance of rain or snow. Highs in the low 40s.

Thursday: Partly sunny skies. Highs in the low to middle 40s.

Get your detailed precision First Alert 10-day forecast plus hour-by-hour weather and interactive radar by downloading the NBC Connecticut app.


Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut]]>
<![CDATA[Get Closing Alerts]]> Mon, 11 Nov 2013 15:23:20 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/closing+central+first+alert.jpg
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Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut]]>
<![CDATA[Ski Report: Despite Warmer Temps, Snow Still Enjoyable]]> Tue, 21 Feb 2017 22:01:48 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Ski-Sundown1.jpg

The snow may have melted from Connecticut backyards, but there's still plenty on the slopes.

"We do not depend on Mother Nature," explains Jarrod Moss, who is part of the mountain operations at Ski Sundown in New Hartford. "Two feet of snow a couple weeks ago is a great shot in the arm and it's making conditions fantastic. The fact is there's a snow making base out there that was laid in place long before that ever happened and the base depths are deep."

It's about 5 to 10 feet deep.

While temperatures will sky rocket into the 60s later this week, the snow pack covering the 65 acres of Sundown insulates itself-- meaning it's not going anywhere, anytime soon.

"If you come out in the morning, you're going to find good, firm, edgeable snow," Moss said. "Just like you would any day of the year and then you're greeted with an afternoon or pleasure and bliss as far as I'm concerned." 

Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut]]>
<![CDATA[From Unusually Warm to Unusually Mild ]]> Tue, 21 Feb 2017 19:16:39 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gefs_t850a_5d_noram_611.png

If you love winter weather the next 10 days look pretty brutal. A very impressive surge of warmth over the next few days will result in temperatures in excess of the 60 degree mark across areas away from the water.

Going into next week we're going to see some changes but the end result isn't going to be particularly cold but the 60s will be gone. A large dip in the jet stream will result in a surge of cold weather across a good chunk of Canada and the central and western part of the U.S. 

What is important to note is that the primary storm track that sets up will be primarily to our west. While this doesn't preclude the threat of wintry weather (i.e. a well timed high pressure to the north could result in snow or ice with a secondary redevelopment south of us) it does introduce a rain/mild risk as we head into March. I don't think our snow chances are over yet but nothing is poiting toward a cold and snowy pattern. Mild with some chances for snow is a better way of putting it. 

Snow lovers - don't despair. The fat lady is warming but she's not singing just yet. 

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<![CDATA[End of Week Warmth Will Rival Records]]> Tue, 21 Feb 2017 17:09:11 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+RPM4+Temp+CT+%281%291.png

A push of mild air will settle into the region through the end of the week. High temperatures for Thursday and Friday could even break records.

A few rain showers are expected Wednesday morning with partly sunny skies by afternoon. High temperatures are forecasted to reach the low to middle 50s.

Temperatures will be quite warm on Thursday with high temperatures in the low to middle 60s inland.

The shoreline will experience some dense fog especially during the morning hours Temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 50s. 

The record high temperatures in Bridgeport for Thursday and Friday is 60 degrees. It will be a stretch to reach 60 on Thursday however it's more likely on Friday.

Temperatures for February have generally been above normal. In fact Bridgeport current ranks as the 9th warmest February in history. We predict 2017 will rank in the top three warmest Februaries. 

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Records for inland Connecticut are kept at Bradley International Airport. Average temperatures for February are around 1 degree above average.

Unsettled weather moves in for Saturday as a cold front advances through the region. We're forecasting rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The front moves through Saturday night and allows for much cooler air to move in for Sunday and the start of next week.

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<![CDATA[Snowpack Weakened by Recent Warmth]]> Mon, 20 Feb 2017 17:32:09 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/stonington.jpg

A week ago much of the state had over a foot of snow on the ground. The unseasonable and record breaking warm temperatures has helped to quickly melt much of the snow throughout the state.

The two satellite images below help to show how quickly the snowpack was weakened from Friday, Feb 17 to Monday, Feb 20. 

Use your cursor to slide back and forth from Friday to Monday.

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The satellite is called MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). It's a high resolution weather satellite that takes snapshots of earth every 1 to 2 days. 

Check out this list of snow depths from Friday to Monday:

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The warmer weather will continue to take a toll on the snowpack with an extended period of above normal temperatures in the NBC Connecticut Exclusive 10 Day Forecast. You can find the latest forecast by clicking here.

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<![CDATA[Drought Conditions Persist Despite Several Winter Storms]]> Mon, 20 Feb 2017 11:19:03 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/US-DROUGHT-MONITOR-214.jpg

Most of northwestern Connecticut remains in extreme drought, despite several recent storms that brought significant precipitation to the state.

According to the latest US Drought Monitor report, released Feb. 16, 28.39 percent of the state remains in extreme drought. That’s down from the numbers reported at the start of the year, but shows no change from the week before, even after heavy snowfall during a storm on Feb. 9 and two smaller storms shortly after.

More than two thirds of the state remain under severe or extreme drought.

Drought conditions in the state forced several areas to institute mandatory water restrictions. Though some cities and towns have lifted restrictions, the state’s reservoirs are still low.

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Water companies are requesting that customers conserve by doing things like taking shorter showers, only running washing machines and dishwashers when they’re full, and turning off the water while doing things like brushing your teeth or shaving.

Fixing any leaky plumbing can also reduce water waste.

Photo Credit: US Drought Monitor]]>
<![CDATA[Excellent Conditions for New England Ski Resorts]]> Fri, 17 Feb 2017 14:19:31 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/180*120/20170214_Jay_Peak_Valentines_Day_2.jpg

President's Day Weekend is typically one of the busiest weekends for ski resorts throughout New England. Whether you're planning to head north for the weekend or enjoy the mountains right here in Connecticut you will be greeted with plenty of snow. Plus, this weekends weather looks phenomenal for all of New England.

Ski resorts in Connecticut are doing very well, ranging between 40 to as much as 60 inches of snow. 

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The impressive snowpack can be found into areas of Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire.

Wachusett Mountain and Jiminy peak are reporting over 60 inches of snow at the summit.

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Northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine are experiencing some of the best conditions in recent memory. Most resorts have between 50 and 60 inches of snow at the summit. 

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Noelle Tuttle from Sugarloaf Mountain in Maine says, "Conditions are some of the best we’ve seen in recent years, and getting better by the day." 

Sugarloaf currently has the highest reported snow depth in all of New England at 77 inches. 

JJ Tolland a representative from Jay Peak Resort in Vermont told us conditions are much better this year compared to last year. 

"Our snowfall total for the entire 2015-16 winter was 208 inches. As of 6:00 AM this morning, Jay Peak’s picked up 344 inches so far for the 2016-17 winter, and it’s still dumping. All of this season’s storms so far have either hit the week before or during a holiday week, which has caused our occupancy to be at 100% during all of the critical periods."

The weather conditions this weekend will be quite pleasant. Southern New England can expect temperatures in the low 40s Saturday with partly cloudy skies and into the upper 40s by Sunday with partly cloudy skies.

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Temperatures in northern New England will be near 40 degrees on Saturday with partly cloudy skies and into the middle 30s Sunday with scattered snow showers.

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If you're hitting the slopes this weekend be sure to snap some photos or video. You can tweet them at us using the hashtag #nbcct or email them to us at shareit@nbcconnecticut.com 

Photo Credit: Jay Peak Resort
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<![CDATA[Historic California Floods in Photos]]> Sat, 18 Feb 2017 15:32:49 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/190*120/BM_Oroville_Flood_2438-2_Color_12_23_1964.jpg From the Great Flood of 1862 to this winter's soaking rains in Northern California, take a look back at some of the state's major floods.

Photo Credit: California Department of Water Resources]]>
<![CDATA[Seasonable Tomorrow Followed by a Mild Weekend]]> Thu, 16 Feb 2017 16:40:50 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Sky+Tomorrow+Highs+Map+%281%29.png

Seasonable temperatures for Friday will be replaced by mild air for President's Day Weekend. 

Temperatures on Friday will make it into the middle to upper 30s with a light northwest wind. 

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The weather for President's Day Weekend will be quite pleasant. Temperatures will be in the middle 40s with partly sunny skies. 

Temperatures warm to near 50 degrees by Sunday. 

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The mild weather sticks around through next week with high temperatures in the middle to upper 40s all week. 

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<![CDATA[Evening Snow and a Thaw]]> Wed, 15 Feb 2017 20:49:09 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*213/image1aa57akena.JPG

A burst of snow and even some thunder and lightning put down two pockets of accumulation this evening. One, as expected, occured in the Litchfield Hills where a persistent snow squall dropped nearly an inch of snow in some towns (0.8" of snow reported in Warren).

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A second squall produced an area of accumulating snow from Haddam south to Killingworth and Clinton - temperatures dropped enough to flip the rain to snow. Very impressive for the shoreline given how mild it was when the squall started!

As temperatures drop this evening watch out for some pockets of black ice.

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Going forward, people who love winter are going to get a bit sad. No real change to the thinking from yesterday with a prolonged period of above normal temperatures moving in. The 6-10 day temperature anomaly about 5,000 feet above our heads again today shows huge positive temperature anomalies across the eastern half of North America.

I don't think winter is done. While it is looking warm over the next 10 days we've been able to sneak a number of snow events into a generally warm weather pattern so far this winter. We'll see how this unfolds going forward.

Photo Credit: Jonathan Ventres
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<![CDATA[Mild Temperatures for President's Day Weekend]]> Wed, 15 Feb 2017 16:21:53 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Special+Topical+1.png

Temperatures were mild today with many locations rising into the middle 40s.

Temperatures will be more seasonable tomorrow and Friday with high temperatures only reaching middle 30s.

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The forecast for President's Day Weekend is looking very pleasant. Partly sunny skies on Saturday with high temperatures in the middle 40s.

Temperatures rise to near 50 degrees by Sunday with partly cloudy skies. 

The beautiful weather continues right into President's Day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the middle 40s.

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The weather over the next several days will be tranquil with no big storms in the forecast. 

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<![CDATA[A Quiet and Mild Stretch of Weather]]> Tue, 14 Feb 2017 12:06:48 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Skycam+LIVE1.png

Connecticut has experienced a period of active weather over this past week with two winter storms. 

The recent snowfall took Connecticut from below normal snowfall to above normal. Official weather records for inland Connecticut are taken in Windsor Locks at Bradley International Airport. Windsor Locks is currently 17.4 inches above what is normal for this time of year.

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If you're not a fan of the snow there is some great news. NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are forecasting a quiet and mild stretch of weather.

Pleasant weather is expected today with sunny skies and temperatures in the low to middle 30s. 

Clouds increase a bit for tomorrow with a rain and snow showers possible. High temperatures will be near 40 degrees. 

The normal high temperature for this time of year is around 38 degrees.

We are already looking ahead to the President's Day Weekend forecast. We're forecasting very pleasant weather conditions with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the middle to upper 40s. 

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<![CDATA[From a Blizzard to a Thaw]]> Tue, 14 Feb 2017 13:35:33 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/C4oB5_sXAAAOCJS.jpg

The jet stream pattern across North America is going to experience a fairly dramatic shift over the coming days and the impact will be a surge of milder than normal air across a large chunk of the country - including Connecticut. While the core of the warmth will be west of us I think we're looking at a prolonged stretch of at or above normal temperatures. 

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This is really being driven by a number of factors. The tropospheric "polar vortex" is strong and showing no sign of slowing down. A strong polar vortex - over the North Pole - is effectively keeping cold air bottled up over the Arctic. We call this a +AO (positive Arctic Oscillation).  Additionally, a persistent trough over the western US is going to bring another round of storms to rain drenched California. This teleconnects to a strong ridge over the central and eastern half of the country - this is a -PNA (negative Pacific-North America oscillation). 

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With this in mind we expect a growing trend of warmer than normal temperatures. While it's always possible to sneak in a winter storm - or even a day or two of below normal temperatures - this is a pretty powerful signature for warmth over a good chunk of the country. The warmth begins in earnest by Sunday with the European Ensembles showing a better than 50/50 shot of high temperatures over 50 degrees.

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Skiers shouldn't despair, however. Conditions have been incredible of late and a few days of warmer than normal weather won't do anything other than soften up the snow. What can be disasterous for ski areas is a warm rain storm with temperatures in the 50s but we're not expecting anything close to that. A few days with highs in the 40s or even near 50 with sunshine and cool overnights will just give us a taste of beautiful spring conditions a month early. 

Here's a look at the current conditions at our mountains here in Connecticut. 

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<![CDATA[High Winds Cause Damage]]> Mon, 13 Feb 2017 16:33:45 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/West+Haven+tree+on+house+1200.jpg

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists have issued a First Alert for strong winds capable of taking down tree limbs and causing power outages and there have been several problems across the state.

The National Weather Service has issued high wind warnings until 6 p.m.

Winds today have gusted to 53 miles per hour at Groton-New London Airport and to 53 at Ledge Light.

During strong winds, a tree toppled on a house on Miami Street in West Haven.Police officers and firefighters have responded. 

A tree also came down on a car on the southbound side of the Merritt Parkway in Greenwich and minor injuries are reported. 

Winds also caused issues on Metro-North Railroad. There were five to 10-minute delays because of a downed tree in the vicinity of Old Greenwich. 

A peak wind gust of 53 mph was already recorded at Groton New London Airport. 

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The winds will settle down later this afternoon, here's a look at Future Wind Gusts at 5 this evening. 

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The strong winds are already leading to some isolated power outages. As of 2 p.m., Eversource is reporting nearly 8,000 outages. Click here to find an updated list of power outages from Eversource.


United Illuminating is reporting around 1,600 outages. Click here to find an updated list of power outages from United Illuminating.

Gusty winds will make temperatures feel much cooler than they actually are. Wind chill values will be in the low to middle 20s throughout the day.

The weather for the remainder of the week will be tranquil with temperatures in the low to middle 30s which is near average. 

Photo Credit: NBCConnecticut.com
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<![CDATA[Power Out for Nearly 7,000]]> Mon, 13 Feb 2017 11:15:59 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/enfieldsnowycoating_1200.jpg

Public schools in Hartford and Waterbury are closed today after the winter storm that hit the state Sunday and Eversource and United Illuminating are reporting nearly 7,000 power outages.

Most of the power outages are in Montville and Ledyard, as well as Bethany, Branford, Danbury, East Lyme, Granby, Greenwich and Wilton. See the full list here.

United Illuminating is reporting 2,769 power outages and most are in Hamden.

The NBC Connecticut meteorologists have issued a first alert for wind and wind advisories have been issued until 6 p.m. today.

After the snow yesterday, the University of Connecticut announced a delayed opening for its campuses this morning.

For the full list of closures and delays click here.

Winter weather hit the state mid-morning Sunday, forcing hundreds of organizations to cancel events and religious services and prompting towns and cities to put parking bans in effect.

The snow and sleet coated roads and reduced visibility for drivers.

The Department of Transportation had 691 on the roads Sunday evening with the goal of having roads clear in time for Monday's commute.

At Bradley International Airport around 30 percent of flights were canceled due to the weather.

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As of Monday morning, Eversource is reporting 350 power outages.

The NBC Connecticut meteorologists forecasted four to eight inches for the northern part of the the state, two to four inches for the western part of the shoreline and under two inches for the southeastern shore.

The next threat of a storm comes Wednesday.

Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut
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<![CDATA[A Busy Weekend]]> Fri, 10 Feb 2017 21:39:17 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/C4QQtCsWIAM-h9j.jpg

Two storms this weekend on the way- it was another busy day at work! Tonight's snow isn't really that big of a deal but we're going to see a bit of accumulation. 1"-3" of snow should do it across the state with a bit of moisture and plenty of cold air around. 

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One thing that's notable about the snow this evening is that it should be quite fluffy. This sounding shows a really, really deep layer of temperatures around -15C which should assure big and fluffy snowflakes. These flakes tend to pile up readily. 

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Any snow tonight will wind down pretty quickly around daybreak tomorrow morning. Most of Saturday looks great! Sunday's storm looks a whole lot more impressive but man it's a tough one to figure out. An area of low pressure to our west is going to redevelop just south of us and turn into a pretty powerful storm east of Cape Cod.

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The question is how warm will temperatures get before that storm redevelopment occurs. Can we lock in some cold? We're right on the line between heavy snow and heavy rain (with a bit of sleet mixed in too). The GFS shows this well with the 0 degree isotherm at 850mb (around 5,000 feet up) bisects the state. 

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A subtle shift in storm track and/or subtle shift in temperature will make a huge difference here. Our forecast is basically a blend of the GFS and Euro right now (the latter being the snowiest and the former being the warmest/rainiest) but there's plenty of bust potential on either side here. I don't feel particularly confident in this one. Let's see what our overnight computer models show and we'll talk again about it in the morning :)

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<![CDATA[Two Shots of Wintry Weather This Weekend]]> Fri, 10 Feb 2017 18:07:31 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/sundaymapofsnow.jpg

Much of the state is still digging out from yesterdays nor'easter. Snowfall totals varied from 9.5 inches at the shore to nearly 20 inches in parts of Hartford and Tolland counties. We have even more snow in the forecast for tonight and Sunday night.

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NBC Connecticut meteorologists have issued a First Alert for tonight's snow which could lead to more issues on the roads.

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Today will feature mostly sunny skies with temperatures only reaching the low to middle 20s. Winds will make it feel even colder with wind chill values of 5 to 15 degrees. 

Roads will become snow-covered tonight with light snow developing between 8 and 10 p.m. 

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The snow comes to an end tomorrow morning by 8 a.m. Tomorrow's weather will feature partly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

We're forecasting one to three inches throughout the state. Some isolated areas could see up to four inches. 

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We're also watching another storm system for Sunday night into Monday. Right now it looks like this will feature a mix of snow and sleet Sunday night, transitioning to plain rain by Monday morning.

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Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut
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<![CDATA[Thunder and Lightning in a Snowstorm? Here's How]]> Thu, 09 Feb 2017 10:31:41 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/thundersnownorwich.png

Typically when we experience thunderstorms in Connecticut temperatures are rather mild or warm. In fact the majority of our thunderstorms occur during the spring and summer months. 

Many people are asking how can thunder and lightning occur during the middle of a winter storm?

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Here's the radar image this morning at 7:09, which shows numerous lightning strikes from Berlin to Rocky Hill.

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While this phenomenon is quite rare it's not the first time it has occurred in Connecticut. 

Thundersnow occurs as a result of convection in the atmosphere. Rapid intensification of a storm and a high amount of instability helps to trigger this fascinating aspect of weather.


In layman terms, there really isn't much of a difference between a summertime thunderstorm and a thunderstorm in the middle of a winter storm. 

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The chances of thundersnow increase as the center of the storm gets closer to Connecticut and continues to intensify.

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<![CDATA[Major Snowstorm Begins]]> Thu, 09 Feb 2017 12:50:11 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/C4ONaPyXUAAg9x-.jpg

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Midday Update: The heaviest snow is beginning to taper off from west to east across the state. Already 12"-16" have been reported in some areas and along the I-91 corridor we will see accumulating snow (though not as heavy) through 4 p.m. or so. Drier air will filter in from the northwest later today and get rid of the snow once and for all.

One thing that's worth mentioning again is just how exceptional the thunder and lightning has been with this storm. This has been one of the most prolific lightning producers I've ever seen. Remarkable.

Previous discussion below: 

Nothing has really changed since my post last night. A super impressive quick hitting storm is going to result in exceptionally heavy snowfall rates over the next few hours. Lots of lightning and thunder will occur to - this storm is going to be exceptional.  I'm using a lot of adjectives and superlatives for this storm because it deserves them. 

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Most of our computer models have at least 1.0" of liquid across the state and I do think there will be a narrow band of incredible snowfall rates later this morning. Here's the reason why.

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An area of low pressure is going to close off at about 10,000 feet above our heads and that is a hallmark of all of our big snowstorms in New England. Being under or just to the northwest of this feature is critical in getting into the best banding. 

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One feature that's also been consistent in our computer modeling is the fact we're looking at violent upward motion where the temperature is close to -15C. This is the temperature at which snowflakes form most efficiently AND the favored type of snow crystal is a dendrite. Dendrites tend to pile up and accumulate quickly as the branches of the snowflakes get intertwined with one another. You can pull off crazy snow:liquid ratios when this signature develops - sometimes on the order of 20:1. 

Here's the bottom line...

  • 10"-18" statewide - if the banding really goes to town and becomes persistent we could see even higher totals in a localized area.
  • Extremely heavy snowfall rates 7 a.m. to 2 p.m. shutting off from west to east.
  • Snow winds down between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m.
  • Snow will be of a  heavy consistency first and then become a bit fluffier as the storm goes on.
  • Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible on the coast especially

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<![CDATA[Snowstorm Turning Into a Beast]]> Thu, 09 Feb 2017 10:34:14 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/hiresp_tprecip_neng_32.png

I've got to say - I'm really, really, really impressed with how this storm is shaping up. It's looking more and more likely that we're going to see a band of epic snow rates for a period tomorrow morning and midday. I eschew weather hyperbole but this one looks like the real deal.

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This storm will be a bit different than many of our "big ones" due to its speed. We're only looking at a 4-6 hour window of really heavy snow. If this storm was moving anyslower we'd be talking about over 2 feet of snow - but it's trucking pretty fast to the east. With that in mind there will be some limit as to just how much snow we can get. The storms speed - and intensity - introduces another problem into the equation and that's the fact we're going to see exceptional snowfall rates at the storm's peak - possibly up to 4" per hour. That is enough to basically immobilize the state for a period of time. This storm will be very bad at its peak.

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The biggest reason we're expecting these heavy snowfall rates is a band of very strong convergence will set up about 10,000 feet up. This a classic signature for heavy snow with powerful winds slowing to a crawl overhead - essentially forcing air parcels to pile up and rise. The acceleration of air in an upward direction is how we get clouds and precipitation - and in this case snow. 

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As I mentioned yesterday one of the things we're watching closely is the fact this strong "lift" or vertical motion is occuring where the temperature is around -15C up way above our heads in the clouds. That is the temperature at which snow flake growth is the most efficient AND the favored crystal type is a dendrite which allows snow to become fluffy and pile up quickly. A 15:1 ratio of snow to liquid is possible where this lift is maximized near -15C in the atmosphere.

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I'm pretty confident there's going to be an area that gets more than 14" - maybe as much as 18". Again, the upward bound here is somewhat limited in that we're only going to have a short window of exceptionally heavy snow - it's a quick mover! Could there be more? Sure but let's not get too carried away just yet and also remember this heavy band will be very narrow geographically.

Where this heavy band sets us things are going to rip but it's important to note when these bands develop there tends to be bands of downward/sinking motion on either side of them. While some people get crushed other areas can miss out a bit. The haves and the have nots in a snowstorm (if my neighborhood is in a "have not" band I'll be livid and a supremely unpleasant person to be around tomorrow afternoon). Still, I think even with these "sucker holes" 8 inches of snow is a reasonable lower bound for most locations.

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Here's the bottom line:


  • Snow develops across the state 5 a.m. to 8 a.m.
  • Heaviest snow between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m.
  • Snow gradually winds down 2 p.m. to 6 p.m.
  • 8"-14" will cover it in most areas - but a narrow band of higher snowfall totals is very possible. It's also conceivable that this heavy band sets up right along the I-84 corridor. 
  • Snowfall rates of 1"-4" per hour in some spots will make driving exceptionally difficult. This will be an extremely high impact storm given how quickly the snow will fall. 
  • Thundersnow is likely at the storm's peak.
  • Winds could gust to 40 m.p.h. in southeastern Connecticut but we are not expecting widespread wind issues or any coastal flooding.
What could go wrong:
  • The truly heavy snow with winds up setting up in one corner of Connecticut (say northwest or southeast) leaving the large population centers in one of those subsidence zones. A possibility - but not likely.
  • Storm trends weaker and the forcing doesn't verify as currently modeled. We'd still get the low end of amounts but the really exceptional snow rates never materialize and some of my adjectives wind up overdone.
  • Best lift winds up above or below the -15C level and snow ratios are much closer to 10:1 than 12:1 or 15:1 as we're currently thinking.
Hopefully you can stay home from work tomorrow and enjoy the storm. We'll have you covered all day on NBC Connecticut. 

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<![CDATA[Thursday Snowstorm]]> Tue, 07 Feb 2017 20:46:01 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gfs_6hr_precip_boston_9.png

It's been an unusually warm winter but most people don't realize we've had almost average snowfall across the state. Not surprisingly the next 48 hours will follow that trend with near record warmth Wednesday and a snowstorm on Thursday. 

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Our current thinking is that we'll have a sizable snowstorm Thursday across all of southern New England. The worst of the weather will be between 7 a.m. and 2 p.m. Thursday with a pretty impressive blitz of snow - possibly on the order of 1"-2" per hour.

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Right now we've kept the range fairly large as we'd like a few more computer model runs to get a handle on a more stable solution. Also, it's not clear which part of Connecticut is most likely to see banding of heavy snow develop - is it along the shoreline or farther north? Right now we don't know. What we do know is that the odds of a significant snowstorm have increased quite a bit today. The 21 member GFS ensemble shows all members producing over 3" of snow with most over 6" in Hartford. These are also calculated using a 10:1 snow:liquid ratio which is likely to be a bit on the low side with 12:1 or 14:1 more common.

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One thing we're looking at is a band of very heavy snow Thursday morning. This is a time-height cross section of the NAM model which shows an area of very strong lift at temperature of -15C way above our heads in the clouds. This is critical as this is the temperature at which snowflakes grow the most efficiently AND the favored type of crystal is a dendrite which tends to pile up rapidly. This can increase the snow:liquid ratio. Where this overlap between lift and the -15C temperature level occurs very heavy snow is likely.

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While we can't rule out more than a foot of snow in some spots I think our upper bound of 12" works for now (I know other outlets are talking about 18" of snow). Here's why...


  • Storm is a quick mover - heavy snow will only last 4-6 hours across most of the state.
  • The storm's track is still awfully far south of New England - most of our computer models have it passing underneath the 40N/70W "benchmark".
  • A subtle shift to the south could reduce totals overall - this is a possibility.
  • There's no closed 700mb or mid level low which tends to be a feature in almost all classic New England snowstorm - this storm has a broad area of strong convergence and frontogensis at 700mb but no rapidly closing or closed low. 
  • The 51 member European Ensemble has 0 members that produce over a foot of snow in Connecticut.
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The bottom line is that this storm continues to look significant. There is still a chance a small shift in the storm south could result in less snow but at this point we feel pretty confident in the 6"-12" forecast. All of this winds down by Thursday afternoon. Happy shoveling!

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<![CDATA[Tornadoes Bring Damage in South Louisiana Storms]]> Tue, 07 Feb 2017 17:32:55 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/180*120/GettyImages-634172434.jpg Tornadoes, hail and thunderstorms hit Southern Louisiana on Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2017, bringing severe damage to buildings and infrastructure to parts of New Orleans, Donaldsonville and Killian.

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[Storm Dumps More Than a Foot of Snow in Parts of CT]]> Thu, 09 Feb 2017 18:59:52 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/manchestermess_snow.jpg

A major nor'easter has brought more than a foot of snow to several Connecticut towns. 

Snow started early this morning and several schools were closed for the day, as were businesses, including Westfarms mall.

The storm also affected mass transit.

Highways remained open and police remained busy responding to several issues.

State police said they have responded to 105 crashes, 553 spinouts and stuck vehicles, as well as many calls for service from 5 a.m. to around 4 p.m. 

AAA, Greater Hartford has been responding to about 100 calls an hour in the greater Hartford area alone since 11 a.m. They said most of the calls have been for vehicles that have gotten stuck. 

While the highways remained open, Gov. Dannel Malloy has been asking people to stay indoors if possible.

"We urge people to stay indoors and don't get in your car unless you absolutely have to. Our highways are open and will remain open, we anticipate. That is always subject to change," Malloy said. "But we are also attempting to coordinate all our activities with our neighboring states of New York, Rhode Island and Massachusetts." 

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The governor kept nonessential first- and second-shift state employees home from work on Thursday, but expected that state offices will be open Friday as long as parking lots can be cleared.

The governor activated the state's emergency operations center, or EOC, at 5 a.m. and it will remain open until 5 p.m. At that point, the state will go into cold weather protocol.   

Because of the storm, anyone whose car registration or drivers license expires today or tomorrow will have until next Wednesday to renew without penalty.

The governor said the state has 700 National Guard members ready to respond if needed.

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Schools were closed across Connecticut and some, like Hartford and Waterbury, planned to stay closed on Friday. You can sign up here for school closing alerts.  You can find the latest list of school cancellations by clicking here. 

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are forecasting between 12 and 18 inches statewide with isolated higher amounts. 

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Snow, including thundersnow is overspreading the state, and will continue falling.

The heaviest snow will be falling between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. and wind down between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. 

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The state Department of Transportation had all 634 state plow trucks and 250 contractors out on the roads on Thursday, the governor said. 

"At 8 to 14 inches, this starts to get to the type of coverage and amounts of snow that could be harder for us to handle," Malloy said.

Follow NBC Connecticut traffic reporter Hannah Mordoh for the latest on traffic issues.

The storm is affecting mass transit.

The Connecticut State University System, including UConn, was closed on Thursday, as were state courts, according to Malloy.  

Aetna's Hartford office is closing today, according to an Aetna spokesperson. 

DOT officials are urging people to stay home and off the roads if possible. But, if you need to be out, leave plenty of extra time to get to your destination.


Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut
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<![CDATA[Ice, Warmth, and Snow]]> Mon, 06 Feb 2017 15:11:26 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+RPM4+Precip+Cloud+Temp+CT+%282%29.png

There's going to be a lot going on over the next 3 days. Tomorrow's weather concern is ice, Wednesday's excitement is warmth, and Thursday's trouble is snow. Let's take it one day at a time.

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The storm that is moving in tomorrow is only a shell of its former self. Sort of. Last week our computer models showed a powerful storm tracking near Toronto with all sorts of heavy precipitation moving into New England. That's no longer going to happen. Lighter amounts of rain will move in Tuesday morning but the problem remains that temperatures will be near 32 degrees as the rain begins. 

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Temperatures above our heads will be well above freezing tomorrow - but at the ground a stale layer of cold air will be tenacious. There's a lot of inertia when it comes to dislodging cold and tomorrow won't be any different. As rain falls temperatures near the ground will be at or just below 32 degrees. For many areas just away from the Sound this could be an issue around daybreak with a few light showers. All it takes is a tiny bit of precipitation to ice up untreated surfaces!

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While temperatures in the valley locations will warm above 32 degrees by midday the temperatures in the hills will not. In fact, it looks like a prolonged period of icing will occur in the Northwest and Northeast Hills where 0.1 to 0.25" of ice accretion is possible. Even by 7 p.m. tomorrow the NCAR ensemble model shows a >50% chance of temperatures below freezing for many places over 500 feet of elevation.

This is not enough ice to cause power outages but is enough to make any untreated walkway or driveway really slick. 

  • Brief period of icing possible in many areas around the morning commute. Treated roads will generally be OK but any untreated areas will be slippery.
  • By mid-late morning most valley and shoreline locations will be above freezing.
  • Prolonged freezing rain is expected in the hills tomorrow - and temperatures in some areas may never climb above 32 degrees. Thankfully ice accretion amounts should not be enough to cause tree or power line issues.

As for Wednesday - the cold at the surface will mix out allowing temperatures to spike. 60 degrees is not out of the question in some areas but right now we're predicting highs in the 50s.

I mentioned above that Tuesday's storm has become much less impressive over the last several days. One consequence of that is that a second piece of energy is able to swing far enough north to clip us with snow. Had the Tuesday storm been stronger the storm track would have been hundreds of miles farther south. 

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Unfortunately, there's not much we can say about the Thursday storm other than accumulating snow is a possibility AND the storm as a reasonable shot of being decent (i.e. more than 4"). This storm is producing an unusually large spread of possible outcomes on our computer models. Take for instance the GFS ensembles (the GFS model run with slight tweaks 20 different times to show a range of possible solutions) which show a HUGE spread. Anywhere from 0" to 10" of snow for Hartford. 

That's about as detailed as we can get about this one - there's the potential for snow but I have no idea if it will be a big storm or we get brushed by with a few flurries or period of light snow. Small tweaks and changes in the jet stream pattern will mean a lot here. I get that a forecast of "we don't know yet" is annoying but as a scientist there's really not much more I can do at this point. This storm is showing a really unusual amount of spread in possible solutions.

As we like to say in TV... stay tuned!

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<![CDATA[Freezing Rain Causes Slick Conditions, School Cancellations]]> Tue, 07 Feb 2017 14:19:12 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Frozen+tire.JPG

Today's icing caused many schools to either delay or cancel classes. You can find an updated list of school cancellations and delays by clicking here.

NBC Connecticut meteorologists have issued two First Alerts for wintry weather on today and Thursday.

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The first weather system moved in this morning, resulting in freezing rain for inland Connecticut and a cold rain for coastal areas. Freezing rain will transition over to plain rain from south to north with the longest icing occurring in the northern hills.

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Showers continue tomorrow with mild temperatures. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to middle 50s.

Then our attention turns to the potential for a much bigger storm on Thursday.

Confidence is increasing for a significant snow storm. The setup shown below which the majority of our computer models are showing would result in plowable snow for the entire state.

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Check back on the NBC Connecticut app for updates. 

Photo Credit: NBCConnecticut.com
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<![CDATA[Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Trends Warmer]]> Sat, 04 Feb 2017 11:25:09 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gfs_t2m_b_neng_19.png

Whether it's just noise at this early juncture or the beginning of a more substantial trend it's hard to say. There's been a notable jump to a warmer solution for the Tuesday and Wednesday storm which would mitigate the ice threat on the front end and allow temperatures to soar into the 50s on Wednesday.

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At the onset, it still looks cold enough for some ice on Tuesday. You can see the light to moderate precipitation moving into southern New England with temperatures pretty close to freezing. This would ice some things up for the morning commute.

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The biggest reason for the change is a change in the strength and location of a cold high pressure to the north of us. This high appears weaker over Quebec and is also getting dislodged and shunted east quickly. Without a strong high to our north feeding cold and dry air into New England we're not going to avoid a surge of very warm air coming in. 

At this point I'd still be on the lookout for wintry weather on Tuesday as this could easily change back to something a bit colder and more interesting. We'll see if the trend continues.

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<![CDATA[A Tranquil Weekend Followed by a Wintry Mess Next Week]]> Fri, 03 Feb 2017 16:25:38 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Forecast+First+Alert+Map_NEW.png

We're not forecasting any weather issues for the weekend, however it will be a much different story early next week.

Temperatures will be chilly and more seasonable for the start of the weekend with highs in the low 30s. Temperatures rise to near 40 for Sunday. 

Plans for the Super Bowl? Whether you're heading to a gathering or watching it from home the weather will quiet. We're forecasting mostly cloudy skies with snow flurries Sunday evening

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The weather turns wintry on Tuesday. We have issued a First Alert for snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain along with gusty winds.

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While it's too early to pinpoint totals and exact timing we can tell you what we know so far.

Here's what we know:

  • Snow will overspread the state on Tuesday and transition to sleet and freezing rain.
  • The wintry mix will transition over to plain rain on Wednesday. The transition will take place first at the shore and last in the northwest corner. 
  • The impacts will be statewide, we're expecting travel to be impacted especially on Tuesday.
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We're still four days out from the storm so there is plenty of time to fine tune the forecast. Make sure to download the NBC Connecticut Weather App for updates on the forecast.

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<![CDATA[Quiet Weekend Followed by a Large Storm]]> Thu, 02 Feb 2017 15:22:38 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gfs_pr6_slp_t850_neng_25.png

For a couple days we've been watching a chance for a minor snow event on Sunday. This is becoming less and less impressive. A weak upper level disturbance will swing through and may be able to trigger a period of light snow on Sunday. At this point any accumulation is quite unlikely and I only have a 10% chance of measurable precipitation (0.01" of liquid or more) in the forecast.

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The storm on Tuesday and Wednesday continues to look very impressive. Take today's European model valid Wednesday afternoon. It has a 971mb low (check out how far to the left that is on your home barometer) over southeast Canada. If this were to verify temperatures could approach the 60 degree mark along with periods of heavy rain and damaging winds. It would be quite a storm.

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Even if the wet, windy, and stormy Wednesday happens exactly as the European model is depicting - the front end of the storm still looks snowy and icy. As the leading edge of the storm's moisture moves in a well positioned high pressure to the north will feed down a supply of cold and dry air. This argues for a period of snow followed by icing as warm and moist air rides up and over the cold air near the ground. 

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All of our models show this potential on Tuesday - the Euro, the GFS, and many of their associated ensembles. Obviously at day 5 and day 6 the details will have to be worked out. Here are some of the questions we need to figure out the answers to.


  • How impressive does that high to the north get? Will it remain locked in and provide a more extensive period of ice and snow?
  • How quickly does the moisture move in - does this start Tuesday morning before dawn or hold off until later in the day?
  • How quickly does warm air flood in aloft... how much snow before the change to ice. 
  • How strong does the low to the west of us on Wednesday get? A strong low over Toronto like the Euro shows would assure a change to rain and strong winds here while a weaker and more strung out low would mitigate the wind threat and potentially lead to more prolonged icing.
Right now we can tell you that the most likely solution is a wintry mix on Tuesday and rain/wind/mild temperatures by Wednesday. When we get a bit closer we'll be able to get a bit more specific! 

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<![CDATA[Cold Temperatures for Friday and the Weekend]]> Thu, 02 Feb 2017 13:15:05 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+RPM4+Temp+NE+Custom+%281%291.png

Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue throughout the day with temperatures rising to near 40 degrees statewide.

A brief cool down moves in for Friday and the weekend. We're forecasting high temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s for Friday and Saturday; overnight lows will be in the low to middle teens.

Check out these afternoon temperatures for the northeast. 

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If you have plans for Super Bowl you should expect temperatures in the upper 20s Sunday evening with flurries and scattered light snow showers.

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The next weather disturbance that could cause some issues moves in on Tuesday. Right now we expect a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain transitioning over to plain rain. 

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<![CDATA[Stormy Week Ahead]]> Wed, 01 Feb 2017 14:57:18 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*123/ecmwf_apcp_f174_ne.png

The weather pattern over the next 7 days is anything but boring. A large storm to our west is going to bring in all sorts of issues Tuesday and Wednesday as it ejects out of the Rockies and heads toward the east coast.

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In the winter we frequently look for a negative North Atlantic Oscillation / -NAO to force storms offshore and prevent them from cutting far to our west. In general, this kind of storm track can keep cold air locked in and prevent warmth from flooding north. Next week's storm won't have a -NAO to work with. Generally below normal heights over the North Atlantic and Greenland will help favor a track to our west - a warmer storm.

That said, there are still some interesting things to watch here. Both the GFS and Euro models bring a piece of this storm in on Tuesday. Enough lingering cold and a fairly well placed high pressure to the north of Quebec should provide enough cold air for a period of snow or mix. 

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The main storm is still likely to cut to our west bringing in warmth on Wednesday with a period of rain. Temperatures in the 50s would be possible - especially away from the CT River Valley north of Hartford that tends to see cold air get trapped between the hills west and east.

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If we're lucky we'll get a lot of rain out of this storm - we could use it. We'll have to watching the leading edge of whatever we get, however, as we could be dealing with a period of snow or ice. 

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<![CDATA[Mild Temperatures and Scattered Snow Showers]]> Wed, 01 Feb 2017 13:17:31 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+RPM4+Precip+Cloud+Temp+CT+%281%291.png

Mild temperatures and windy today followed by a big cool down for Friday and the weekend.

Temperatures today will rise to near 40 degrees inland and middle 40s at the shore. This will help melt some of the snow that fell yesterday. Generally 2 to 3 inches of snow fell statewide with a few isolated areas that saw 3.5 inches.

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In addition to the mild temperatures winds will be gusty, westerly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. This will make temperatures feel much cooler than they actually are.

We're forecasting snow showers to move into the state during late afternoon and early evening hours. The snow showers will be very isolated and will mostly affect the western half of the state. 

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The weather turns quiet and cold for the remainder of the week. The next chance for precipitation heads towards the state on Sunday with snow or rain showers possible.

Temperatures turns quite chilly for Friday and Saturday with high temperatures struggling to reach 30 degrees and overnight lows in the teens and single digits.

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<![CDATA[Slick Roads Cause School Delays This Morning]]> Wed, 01 Feb 2017 13:55:46 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/SLIPPERY-CONDITIONS-SIGN.jpg

One to 3 inches of snow fell throughout the state Tuesday which led to numerous issues on the roads Tuesday afternoon and caused school delays this morning.

The snow started late morning or early afternoon Tuesday across the state and scattered snow showers continued through the nighttime hours, especially for northern Connecticut. Road conditions deteriorated by Tuesday afternoon and led to a series of crashes and highway closures, including a crash on Interstate 91 in North Haven that involved 25 to 30 vehicles.

Between 10 a.m. Tuesday and 6 a.m. Wednesday, state police responded to 336 accidents and helped 134 drivers.

Crews remain out this to clear up slick roadways.

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Many people enjoyed the day off from school Tuesday. Check out this gallery of photos that our viewers sent in. If you have photos of Tuesday's snow we would love to see them, send it to shareit@nbcconnecticut.com.

The weather on Wednesday improves drastically with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures near 40 degrees. 

Photo Credit: Connecticut Department of Transportation
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<![CDATA[Your Photos from the Jan. 31 Winter Storm]]> Wed, 01 Feb 2017 13:18:15 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/186*120/b33798eb8d05445abc07cbac6bb12438.JPG.jpg See It Share It Photos from around the state.

Photo Credit: Jeffrey]]>
<![CDATA[Snow Continues Through This Evening]]> Tue, 31 Jan 2017 14:14:13 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/176*120/16473288_1440394399327519_2085433135843357189_n.jpg

Today's snow is behaving pretty much as expected. I did think the heavier snow this afternoon would be a bit more widespread but it has been relatively patchy. There have been occasionaly reports of heavy snow but the snow by and large has been of the light to moderate variety.

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Not surprisingly, roads have been a mess with accidents all over the place. Cold pavement temperatures allow almost every flake to stick.

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I do think the snow will have some staying power this evening. As the main batch of it moves through by 5 p.m. we will see an area of lift developing in the low levels of the atmosphere through Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. This should allow snow to continue at a light clip through later this evening and tonight. Some additional accumulation will be possible. By the time the storm winds down 1"-3" of snow should be the final range across the state. 

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<![CDATA[On Ryan's Radar: Burst of Snow Tuesday Afternoon]]> Mon, 30 Jan 2017 19:57:15 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/C3babc0XUAIxk4D.jpg

It's not a lot of snow but the timing is unfortunate. A burst of snow is going to cause some issues for the evening commute Tuesday. It's a classic Alberta Clipper system diving out of Canada and heading toward New England. Anytime an upper level system dives underneath us this time of year it's worth watching.

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One thing that I'm watching closely is a strong zone of lift in the lower parts of the atmosphere. A strong low level jet will lend itself to strong low level convergence and lift over Connecticut. It appears we're in the area where this low level forcing is maximized. This argues for a period of moderate to heavy snow across Connecticut right during the evening commute.

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Right now I'm thinking 1"-3" of snow is likely across Connecticut. There is an opportunity for a bit more than 3" of snow - in the hills especially - if the snow is able to be "fluffy" in nature. At this point I don't see a huge signal for very light and fluffy snow (i.e. 15:1 or 20:1 snow to liquid ratios) but this will have to be watched. I do expect light snow to continue through most of the overnight across northern Connecticut and possibly through right around daybreak Wednesday.

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Beyond tomorrow the weather pattern is looking active and more wintry. I expect several chances for snow or wintry mix through day 10. Stay tuned!

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<![CDATA[Snow Prompted Hundreds of Early Dismissals]]> Tue, 31 Jan 2017 16:33:27 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/84+west+in+Southington+1200.jpg

Several school districts made the decision early to dismiss students early with a forecast of snow, the state Department of Motor Vehicles canceled all road skills tests after 1 p.m. for today and the NBC Connecticut meteorologists issued a First Alert for snow that is causing problems on the roads and will impact the evening commute as well.

UConn dismissed at 2 p.m. for the Storrs, greater Hartford, Waterbury and the School of Law campuses, while classes and operations at UConn's Stamford and Avery Point campuses remain on their regular schedule.

Non-essential employees were allowed to leave the Storrs, greater Hartford, Waterbury and the School of Law campuses at 2 p.m., but essential employees were directed to report as normal. Essential services, including public safety, residential dining halls and others will not be affected. 

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We're forecasting one to three inches of snow for the entire state. While it will not accumulate to much, there will be periods of heavier snow that could make things tricky on the roads, and the timing has led to some issues.

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Deputy Police Chief Brian Foley, of the Hartford police department, said the early dismissals will lead to parents leaving early, which will help the commute later today. 

"When parents are leaving early to go home and get their children -- most of the schools in the region do have early dismissal, so a lot of parents that would commute into Hartford will be heading home early so that will lighten our traffic pressure," he said.

In addition to schools dismissing early, the evening commute could also present an issue. Light to moderate snow will be falling statewide during the evening afternoon and evening commute home.

Winter weather advisories have been posted for the entire state and are in effect through the night. 

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The widespread snow will come to an end by 10 p.m. with lingering snow showers continuing through the night. 

Photo Credit: NBCConnecticut.com
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<![CDATA[Heading North This Weekend? Ski Conditions Are Ideal]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2017 16:51:05 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+RPM4+Ski+Snowfall2.png

If you're heading north for the weekend there will be plenty of snow for winter activities.

Northern New England can expect high temperatures in the middle 20s with partly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers.

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While southern New England has experienced a rather quiet January, much of northern New England has a healthy snow pack.

Mountains like Jay Peak in Vermont and Bretton Woods in New Hampshire have over 40 inches of snow at the summit.

Higher elevations of northern New England can expect even more snow this weekend. The forecast calls for as much as 10" for areas along the northern Green Mountains. 

Snow will fall in the White Mountains as well. Higher elevations of the Whites can expect 2 to 6 inches this weekend. 

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Snowmobiling conditions are ideal as well with a current base of 4-6 inches from northern Vermont to northern New Hampshire.

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<![CDATA[Cooler Weather Moving in for the Weekend]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2017 12:47:50 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+RPM4+Temp+CT1.png

After an unseasonably warm January the temperatures will finally feel more winter like beginning this weekend.

Bradley International Airport which is where official weather records are kept for interior Connecticut has experienced 13 days with low temperatures above 32 degrees. Low temperatures in the middle of January should be near 18 degrees.

Many woke up to a spectacular sunrise this morning, check out some of these See It Share It images that we're sent in. 

The weather this weekend will be pleasant with mostly sunny skies and highs near 40 inland and in the low to middle 40s near the shore.

Following the weekend we're keeping our eyes on a couple of disturbances that could bring some wintry weather to the state. 

The first possibility for some light snow comes on Wednesday as a clipper system moves across the northeast.

We're also monitoring a larger system for next weekend. We will have more details on that as we get a bit closer.

<![CDATA[A Cool and Tranquil Weekend Ahead]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2017 12:12:29 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Custom+Map+114.png

After a busy start to the work week the weather pattern turns cooler and storm free for the weekend.

Today's weather will once again be unseasonably warm, in fact we're forecasting highs in the upper 40s which is 10 to 15 degrees above average. In addition to the warmth, scattered rain showers are forecasted throughout the day. 

The jet stream retreats to our south this weekend meaning quiet and cooler weather is in the forecast. 

Temperatures look chilly Sunday morning for the 2017 Penguin Plunge, supporting Special Olympics of Connecticut. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s for Sunday mornings plunge.

Following the weekend we are watching two systems for next week. We're monitoring a storm system on Monday afternoon which could bring light snow to the area and we're also watching a clipper system for Wednesday. 

Get your detailed precision First Alert 10-day forecast plus hour-by-hour weather and interactive radar by downloading the NBC Connecticut app.


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<![CDATA[Too Much Sleet!]]> Tue, 24 Jan 2017 20:18:14 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/16174778_1431893626844263_2233783930146303729_n.jpg

This morning I measured 2.0" of sleet here in West Hartford. With a bit of rain added in the sleeted melted down to 1.05" of liquid - weight-wise it was about the equivalent of 10 or 11" of snow!

For days we have been talking about the sleet and along the I-84 corridor the sleet managed to pile up more than the 1" we expected as the change to rain took forever to arrive here in West Hartford. So what cause all this sleet? 

We get sleet as snowflakes fall from the clouds and melt due to a layer of air that's over 32 degrees aloft. As the melted snowflake falls lower to the ground it encounters air that is below 32 degrees below the warm layer causing it to refreeze. The layer of cold air has to be cold enough and thick enough to get the liquid drop to refreeze. 

This is harder to forecast than it sounds! For example, the warm layer really shouldn't be too warm. If it's over 3C the snowflakes completely melt which makes it harder for the drop to refreeze. Also, the cold layer needs to be deep enough and cold enough to get a refreeze to happen (a thousand feet of 31F isn't going to cut it). Oh yeah and on top of that it can't be too warm near the ground so the sleet pellets start melting again. 

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Our models were pretty different with how the atmosphere's thermal profile would look - particularly around Hartford. This sounding valid at 10 p.m. is a 3 hour forecast off the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model.

The warm layer is around +3.5C which would signal a change to rain as the drops would be ice free and have a hard time refreezing. As it turned out the actual warm layer around that time was closer to +2C. These are really tiny differences in the temperature structure of the atmosphere that have a huge difference in the final outcome. All of our high resolution models played catch up all day and all evening limiting the warmth in that warm layer. 

In the end I'm pretty pleased with the forecast - though it wasn't perfect. We were more bullish with the sleet and wintry weather potential than anyone else in the market and even the typically bullish National Weather Service leading up to the event. The storm produced more sleet than I expected around Hartford given the very delayed transition to rain. Out east and along the coast, things worked out quite well with warmer temperatures in that warm layer and warmer near ground temperatures resulting in mainly rain as far north as Killingly. The possible change to snow in Litchfield County we thought was a possibility did not occur so they wound up on the low end of our very large 2"-6" range that allowed for that possibility. 

Onto the next one!

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<![CDATA[More Wintry Weather Ahead Tonight]]> Tue, 24 Jan 2017 20:41:44 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Model+HRRR+Precip+Cloud+CT4.png

We're tracking an area of precipitation that will bring another round of sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain to the state. Check out a list of the latest closings and delays. Numerous after school activities have been cancelled.

Here's a look at one of our computer models (Rapid Refresh Model) for tonight at 11:00 PM. It shows widespread rain showers with a wintry mix for areas north of the I-84 corridor.

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Untreated roads and sidewalks could once again become slick as temperatures fall this evening. 

Temperatures throughout Connecticut will fall into the low 30s this evening. We're forecasting a low of 31 degrees in Torrington and 36 degrees in New Haven. 

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In addition to the wintry mix the winds will also be gusty. We're forecasting wind gusts to 30 mph. Luckily winds won't be as strong as they were Monday night. Stonington received a gust of 66 MPH which was the highest recorded in the state. 

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Get your detailed precision First Alert 10-day forecast plus hour-by-hour weather and interactive radar by downloading the NBC Connecticut app.


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<![CDATA[See it Share it Photos: Your Photos from the Nor'easter]]> Tue, 24 Jan 2017 15:20:07 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/180*120/West_Haven_Nina_Tomlinson.jpg Check out these Nor'easter photos that were sent in from around the state.

Photo Credit: Nina Tomlinson]]>
<![CDATA[Ugly Evening of Weather]]> Mon, 23 Jan 2017 19:22:55 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/hrrr_ref_neng_7.png

A wind-driven sleet across the state this evening. Hideous. Temperatures are generally above freezing so we're expecting roads will be a bit slushy inland but with the exception of the hills they should not freeze up. Along the shoreline we'll see mainly rain besides a few sleet pellets. 

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The reason for sleet is that we have warm air in the clouds causing snow flakes to at least partially melt with a cold pocket of air around 3,000 feet above our heads. That causes the partially melted snow flake to refreeze into an ice pellet! This sounding off one of our computer models for this evening in Windsor Locks shows a classic sleet setup. A warm layer of about +2C about 7,000 feet above our heads with a deeper subfreezing layer about 2,500 feet above our heads near -4C. 

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The accumulation forecast is a real pain. 1" of liquid rain generally produces about 10" of snow - but only about 3" of sleet! With that in mind getting excessive sleet accumulation is really tough to do. I do expect we'll see accumulation of around an inch on the I-84 corridor with 1"-2" in the higher elevations just northwest of there and even in parts of the Farmington Valley and Northeast Hills.

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In the Litchfield Hills, there is likely to be a bit of snow that mixes in as well. We've put out an unusually large range of 2"-6" forecast for the Litchfield Hills northwest of Torrington/Winsted to account for this possible change to snow which would allow for accumulation to add up more quickly. 

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Strong winds will continue across the state with gusts up to about 50 mph along the shoreline. This should fall short of what I expected yesterday which is good. Also, tides are quite low today so even with 3 feet of storm surge coastal flooding will be minor. 

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<![CDATA[Watch: Surf's Up in SoCal's Streets]]> Mon, 23 Jan 2017 13:12:34 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/01-23-2017-surf-boogie-board-flooding-storm.gif Storms provided rare opportunities to boogie board, surf and swim in the streets of Southern California Sunday Jan. 23, 2017. The strongest storm in seven years brought record rainfall across the region, but residents still found ways to have fun without the sun.

Photo Credit: Margaret Allen]]>
<![CDATA[Big Nor'Easter Moves In]]> Sun, 22 Jan 2017 16:57:11 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/hires_tprecip_boston_52.png

Things are going to turn pretty ugly by tomorrow evening. A big nor'easter is going to cause all sorts of issues in Connecticut including damaging winds, heavy sleet, and coastal flooding. 

The one change to the forecast is to delay the storm's arrival by several hours - it looks like substantial precipitation will hold off until the afternoon at the earliest. Winds should crank prior to the precipitation's arrival, however.

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The storm is a big one and we're talking about some really impressive anomalies here. The U-wind anomalies are approaching -6 standard deviations which shows that this storm is quite powerful. Strong wind gusts are expected in areas where the atmosphere can remain mixed - that is most likely to happen in the hills and along the shoreline. This sounding off the NAM model shows the potential for 60 mph wind gusts in New Haven as early as mid afternoon Monday. Scattered power outages are expected in some areas.

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The second issue is going to be sleet - potentially a lot of sleet! There is going to be a warm pocket of air about 6,000 feet above our heads which should preclude snow in most locations. But as those snowflakes melt they'll run int a much colder pocket of air about 3,000 feet above our heads which should turn the melted snowflake over to an ice pellet. We are now expecting a relatively significant amount of sleet - 1" to 2" north and west of I-84 with up to an inch elsewhere (except the shore). Temperatures will remain at or above 32F in the valley and along the shoreline which should mitigate accumulation of sleet some. 

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In the Litchfield Hills temperatures will be even colder through the atmosphere and some mix with snow is expected as well. In these areas 2"-6" of mainly sleet and some snow is expected. This is going to be tough to shovel and an all around pain in the butt. The range is pretty large for now because I expect there will be large differences in snow and sleet accumulation over a short distance. The valley locations get the low amounts (i.e. downtown Torrington) while the hill tops get the higher amounts (i.e. Norfolk and Hartland). 

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Keep in mind that sleet accumulates at a much slower rate than snow. 1" of liquid precipitation yields about 10" of snow but only about 3" of sleet.

With this powerful storm we're also going to have to deal with excessive precipitation. Besides a wind-driven sleet we'll also see the precipitation mix with and change to rain in many locations. Some areas could see up the 3" of liquid precipitation by the time all is said and done with most areas around 1"-2". 

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As for coastal flooding - we're in luck! Low astronomical tides plus the peak surge occuring at low tide should spare us from major issues. That said, with an easterly wind and big waves we should see at least some issues from splashover especially west of New Haven. 

Here's the bottom line:


  • Light precpitation Monday morning is not expected to cause any issues (temperatures will be above freezing so icing is not expected).
  • Winds will pick up Monday afternoon with gusts to 50 mph possible around Hartford (there's a bit of uncertainty as to how high the winds will get in the valley as there could be a shallow stable layer that prevents the strong winds from mixing down) and wind gusts as high as 65 mph in southeastern Connecticut. 
  • Scattered power outages are likely Monday afternoon and Monday night.
  • Heavier sleet (rain coast) moves in during the evening commute and could mix with or occasionally change to snow in the highest hill towns. 
  • A brutal evening of weather is expected with strong winds - especially at the coast - with a heavy, wind-driven sleet across the interior mixing with and changing to rain from time to time.
  • 1"-2" of sleet is expected along and north of I-84 with 2"-6" of sleet and a bit of snow in the hilltowns of northwest Connecticut. Up to an inch of sleet is possible elsewhere in the state away from the immediate shore.
  • The Tuesday morning commute will be OK in most locations with temperatures above freezing. Some lingering slushy patches from the sleet is possible in the hill towns. 

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<![CDATA[Trees Down, Schools Closed, Power Out After Nor'easter]]> Tue, 24 Jan 2017 16:39:41 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/tree+through+windshield+at+UConn+1200.jpg

A nor'easter brought down trees and power lines in Connecticut and dumped some snow and sleet on the roads, which led to more than 400 schools and business closing or opening late Tuesday morning.

Emergency crews all across the state were responding to reports of wires and trees down as winds gusted near 50 miles per hour. In some areas the heavy wet snow or sleet helped bring them down.

One UConn student who lives off-campus in Storrs woke to find a branch through her windshield. She said it was still touching power lines and Eversource had to respond. 

At one point, there were nearly 9,000 Eversource power outages. Just before 4 p.m., there were 2,200 outages.

The storm brought central and northern Connecticut one to two inches of sleet, but it was a different story for the shoreline and much of eastern Connecticut, where plain rain fell. 

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Bradley International Airport reported Tuesday morning they had one canceled arrival and one canceled departure as a result of weather, as well as four delayed arrivals and three delayed departures. Airport officials said some of the issues were due to weather conditions in other parts of the country.

The remnants of the storm will continue today with periods of lighter rain and a steady breeze.

Conditions improve drastically on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the middle 40s.

Photo Credit: Submitted
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<![CDATA[First Alert Issued for Monday Nor'easter]]> Sat, 21 Jan 2017 13:09:00 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Web+Scenarior+Noreaster.png

The NBC Connecticut meteorologists have issued a First Alert for Monday as a Nor’easter moves through New England.

The weekend looks mild with high temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 through the weekend, well above the average of 34 degrees in Hartford this time of year.

Sunday night into Monday most of the state will begin seeing rain and sleet, possibly a wintry mix in the hill towns. The shoreline will see rain and maybe some sleet. The rain will be heavy at times.

The chances for a significant storm are increasing for the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Right now we're forecasting heavy rain for most of the state with the potential for a wintry mix in the northwest corner. While the heavy rain won't totally alleviate the drought it will definitely help.

In addition to the heavy rain and wintry mix, winds could really whip and a high wind alert has been issued for the shoreline starting Sunday night through Monday night.

We're forecasting sustained winds gusting 40-40 miles per hour, perhaps up to 60 mile per hour gusts along the shoreline. This could cause tree limbs to fall which may lead to power issues.

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For a more in depth and meteorological explanation of the storm check out Ryan Hanrahans latest article on Ryan's Radar.

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<![CDATA[Monday's Nor'Easter]]> Fri, 20 Jan 2017 17:20:23 -0500 //media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gfs_6hr_precip_neng_16.png

Monday's nor'easter isn't going to be the strongest we've ever seen but it is going to produce a few issues across Connecticut including a bit of snow and sleet followed by heavy rain and strong winds.

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There's no question Monday's storm has trended a bit milder. Strong onshore easterly flow should result in a mostly rain even but it should be cold enough for some mixed precipitation at the onset. Here's a time-height cross section of the ECMWF model which shows a pocket of subfreezing air just 2-3,000 feet above our heads between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. on Monday. This quickly warms by Monday afternoon. 

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In the Northwest Hills there is still the potential for some minor snow and sleet accumulation but this is becoming a bit less likely. Odds of >3" of snow for places like Norfolk on our European ensemble is only about 1 in 4 - down substantially from yesterday's runs. A warmer trend.

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A strong pressure gradient - the difference between the high to the north and coastal low to the south - is going to produce a period of powerful winds at the Connecticut shoreline. The NAM shows winds in excess of 70 knots over Long Island Sound by Monday evening just about 2,000 feet up. Thankfully, most of this will stay above our heads some of it will be able to mix down to the surface - particularly near the Sound. Wind gusts to 60 mph are a possibility.

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Here's my latest thinking:

  • Snow/sleet develops Monday morning with rain at the shoreline.
  • Snow/sleet quickly changes to rain in most places with only some minor accumulation expected in the hills.
  • Winds become gusty during the afternoon and evening with gusts to 45 mph inland and up to 60 mph at the shoreline. Power outages are possible.
  • Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding (low astronomical tides). I don't forsee this being a major issues.
  • 1"-2" of rain in many areas with localized pockets of heavier rain - particularly in the Litchfield Hills. 

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