Friday Soaker | NBC Connecticut
On Ryan's Radar

On Ryan's Radar

First Alert Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan Gives You His Take on Connecticut's Weather

Friday Soaker

On Ryan's Radar

NBC Connecticut First Alert meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan gives you the science behind the forecast and shares with you an in-depth look at the weather impacting Connecticut.

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A surge of tropical moisture and a deep low pressure to our west is going to bring a soaking rain into Connecticut on Friday. While the rain is expected to be heavy for a period of time we may be looking at a smidge less than we were thinking a day or two ago. 

Evening Forecast for May 3Evening Forecast for May 3

(Published Wednesday, May 3, 2017)

Most of our computer models show a general 1"-2" rainfall across the state - including our high resolution models like the NAM. 

One strong signal for heavy rain is mean values of ~2" in southern Connecticut showing up on the Euro Ensembles. More than 50% of Euro Ensemble members drop over 2" of rain in the New Haven area - that's a big signal! 

At this point it appears there's a minor threat for flooding Friday afternoon. Strong lift, a good moisture plume, and even a bit of elevated instability should be enough for embedded thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. The storm is moving fast enough - and our models have cut back on precipitation totals over the last 24 hours - that we're not expecting widespread or significant flooding.

This is just another storm putting a dent in the multi-year drought we've been dealing with. It appears our fortunes have turned and we're seeing big improvement in virtually every drought indicator.