A bit of a tough forecast for Thursday across the state. Spread between our computer models has opened up for tomorrow. A weak upper level system is going to swing through New England and produce a period of "lift" in the atmosphere. That would argue for a period of precipitation but it's never that simple.
The question is will there be enough moisture for a period of moderate rain and snow across the state during the morning or will there be too much dry air? Our models offer up two different depictions.
Here's the NAM's depiction of how the atmosphere will look at 7 a.m. Thursday. Notice where the green line juts to the left several thousand feet above our heads? This is very dry air and would lead to a quick and painless death for snowflakes falling from the clouds. The RGEM, on the other hand, moistens that layer up quickly and brings in a burst of precipitation between 7 a.m. and noon - nearly 0.2" of liquid.
So which is right? While the RGEM and our in-house RPM models would argue for some minor accumulation in the hills (around an inch) this is likely overdone. The GFS and the European models both agree on a drier scenario along with all but 1 of the 20 member Short Range Ensemble. Given marginal temperatures and marginal precipitation rates we're going with little or no accumulation tomorrow. Speaking of which... here's the forecast: