Conn. Coronavirus Peak Forecast for Late April/Early May; Disease Decreases Substantially By Mid-June: HHC, MIT

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Hartford HealthCare held a news conference Friday morning where the hospital, in partnership with MIT, revealed new details on its coronavirus forecasting model.

The model is currently still predicting a peak in Connecticut in late April and early May, said Dr. Ajay Kumar, Hartford HealthCare's chief clinical officer.

"We definitely expect the disease to decrease substantially in mid-June," said Dimitris Bertsimas, associate dean of business analytics at MIT’s Sloan School of Management.

COVID Analytics/MIT

The model has been accurate with what has been seen around the country so far in the pandemic for hospital equipment and resource needs, Kumar said.

The model works off of scientific data based on prior data and determines what is expected in the future, said Bertsimas.

"Social distancing is the best method we have at the moment" to contain the disease, Bertsimas said.

Hartford HealthCare currently has 324 confirmed COVID-19 patients in its system with another 141 patients awaiting test results, Kumar said.

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