One of the nation's most widely watched virus projection models, the one relied upon by infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci and often cited by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has revised its local death projections upward and delayed when it think restrictions can be eased.
In an updated model posted Monday night, the Gates Foundation-backed IHME model projected Connecticut's ultimate death toll to be at 3,340 by summer, up from 2,884 projected last week.
In addition, the model now projects that social distancing restrictions may be able to be relaxed after June 17 provided strategies like increase testing, contract tracing, and limiting of gathering sizes are followed.
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According to IHME's website, it primarily relies on data aggregated by Johns Hopkins, which has been the most commonly cited source for real-time numbers, down to a county level, on total cases and deaths globally and nationally. It uses data from local health departments and hospital networks to assist in data collection.
Last week, the model delayed the timeline to relax social distancing restrictions from June 1 to June 7. Now the model says that relaxation won't happen until June 17.a a