A Warm Start to Summer?

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Today the National Weather Service released their 3-month forecast for May, June, and July. It's a scorcher for the east coast. The June-July-August forecast is just as warm for New England.

The NWS is predicting a better than 50% chance of warmer than normal conditions for all of New England south through Florida. Most of the United States with the exception of the northern Rockies and northern Plains is also expected to experience a hot summer. 

Here in Connecticut a greater than 50% chance of a hot summer means there's less than a 50% chance of either "normal" or "below normal temperatures this summer. "Warmer than normal" is defined as the 10 warmest in the last 30 years while "colder than normal" would be 10 coldest in the last 30 years, etc.  

This forecast isn't a huge surprise given how warm our recent summers have been and continued warming due to climate change. 

Of course things can change. While these kinds of outlooks show skill (compared to say rolling a die or shaking a magic 8 ball) they're not always correct. Even saying there's <50% chance of a normal or below normal summer doesn't preclude that from happening. We shall see! 

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