Decision 2020

Personality Expert Who Predicted Trump In 2016 Says Biden Could Win This Year

Photo of Paul Tieger, a Paul Tieger, a personality expert
NBC Connecticut

Very few people predicted that President Donald Trump would win the 2016 election, with the exception one Connecticut personality expert. 

“People who have not decided yet are going on the Trump train, a lot more than the Biden train,” Paul Tieger said.

Tieger, an internationally recognized expert in personality type, predicted that Trump would win in 2016 when so many pollsters were wrong. 

In 2016, Tieger concluded that based on people's personality type, 75% of the U.S. population is conservative, and 25% is liberal. Four years ago, Tieger said Trump has never been a traditional conservative but he has a much bigger pool of people who are naturally hard-wired to receive his message. 

“The comment that you hear the most -- have heard the most --   from Trump supporters, is I like that he says what’s on his mind,” Tieger said. 

In the days leading up to the 2016 election, most national polls showed Clinton having anywhere from a 3% to 6% lead.

Tim Malloy is a pollster with Quinnipiac University. 

“There’s a little bit of art, science and English involved in these polling. It’s not a perfect thing and that’s why you have margins of error. So we didn’t make any dramatic adjustments. We just hope people are more honest,” Malloy said.

Tieger concluded that the pollsters didn’t ask the right questions. They ask questions about demographics when they should be asking about their values and how they see the world. 

However, while he was right in 2016, Tieger is beginning to think that former Vice President Joe Biden could win this time. 

“If it really was a fair and clean election I think that right now the Democrats are looking like they’re in pretty good shape,” Tieger said.

He predicted a Trump victory in 2016 but now thinks those voters have more information they’re using to make up their minds. 

“The reality is Biden has cut into all of his demographic categories especially around women, especially around older people,” Tieger said. That “transcends the conservative liberal stuff.”

“I think people know more about President Trump than they did in 2016. I don’t mean that as necessarily negative. It could be positive as well. You might be getting a clearer picture of both candidates,” Malloy said.

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