Watching Maria

Finally, Jose is drifting away and falling apart in the Atlantic Ocean. Good riddance. Our attention now is on Hurricane Maria which is north of the Turks and Caicos and heading north. 

There is some risk to North Carolina from Maria. Another blocking ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic will, at least initially, prevent the hurricane from rocketing into the North Atlantic. The Euro and GFS ensembles show some risk for the Mid Atlantic and especially the Outer Banks as Maria interacts with an upper level low over the southeastern U.S. which essentially tugs it west a bit.

Locally, we have two possible impacts from Maria we'll be watching. One, is that the storm could meander near the Outer Banks before racing out to sea and some moisture gets transported north resulting in a period of rain Wednesday and Thursday. That's a distinct possibility and currently reflected in our forecast. 

A second, and much less likely scenario, is that Maria moves much farther west over North Carolina than currently suggested and the storm races northeast and impacts us with some wind and rain (as a much weakened storm). 

Unlike Jose, Maria will encounter a strong jet stream over New England which should force the east into the Atlantic Ocean quickly.

There is virtually no chance of a direct or serious tropical storm impact here for a couple reasons. One, is a weakness in the blocking ridge east of us due to Jose and the second is a digging trough coming in from the west that will kick Maria out to sea.

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