decision 2022

These Are the Things Democrats Could Do With Congressional Gains in the Midterms

Here’s a look at what the House and Senate could do next year if Democrats defy polls and do well in the midterm elections.

With inflation hitting 8.2% in September, and Americans persistently worried about the economy, Republicans are favored by many observers to take control of the House in the midterm elections.

But their chances of getting the five seats they need to win the House might not be as encouraging as they were. Even as economic concerns seem to be sending Americans to the GOP corner, the Supreme Court ruling overturning the right to an abortion could push women in particular to the Democrats’ side. President Joe Biden has tried to rally voters in the days and weeks leading up the midterm elections by promising a bill codifying abortion rights across the country if Democrats keep the the House and expand their majority in the Senate.

As the country closes in on Election day, here’s a look at what the House and Senate could do next year if Democrats defy polls and do well in the midterm elections.

Scenario: Democrats Stay in Power in the Senate

Confirm Biden’s Judicial Picks

Democrats have the best chance of remaining in control of the Senate. If they do, they would be able to keep approving Biden’s picks for the federal courts.

Confirming or denying judges is one key role that under the constitution has reserved for the Senate, in addition to conducting impeachment trials and advising and consenting on treaties.

The importance of the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court, has been sharply in focus with the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, rulings on Trump’s many lawsuits and other decisions.

The dominoes that fell after the 1994 congressional elections went on to shape American politics in the 2020s. LX Political Editor Noah Pransky and NBC News' Steve Kornacki help explain just how significant one midterm election can be to generations of Americans.

Scenario: Democrats Take Both the House and the Senate

If Democrats are able to expand their lead in the Senate they could tackle issues sometimes stymied by Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Krysten Sinema of Arizona, said Mark Carl Rom, an associate professor of government and public policy at Georgetown University. 

"The dream scenario for the Democrats is that they maintain a majority in the House -- it’s not impossible, it’s unlikely but not impossible -- and they expand their majority in the Senate," he said. "That would allow real policy change because every vote does not come down to Senator Sinema and Senator Manchin. And if that happens I could imagine the Democrats would be much more aggressive on efforts to make the tax system more fair, to enhance our ability to address climate change, to protect the integrity of the American elections in the way the Democrats prefer to." 

Democrats have not campaigned aggressively on what they would do with control of both chambers, but on the successes on the Biden administration, from environmental policies to the infrastructure rebuilding, he said.

Kevin R. Kosar, a resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is less certain Democrats would tackle such big issues. The party has had a tough time holding together its more mainstream and progressive members in a single coalition.

"Criminal justice and other issues have really exposed those rifts," he said.

Whatever Democrats do, they must figure out an answer on immigration, he said.

"They're just getting clobbered by the images from the border."

While only two states have gun measures on the ballot this midterm season, voters on both sides of the aisle will still be heavily influenced by gun policy as they head to the polls.

National Protection for Abortion Rights/Same-Sex Marriage

Biden promised protecting abortion rights would be his priority if Congress sends him a bill, but Democrats would need to gain enough seats in the Senate to overcome the requirement for 60 votes to pass the legislation. The split is now 50-50 and only a few Republicans would likely vote in favor. The House has twice voted to expand the rights to an abortion though the medical procedure would be banned earlier than 24 weeks, when the ability of a human fetus to survive outside a woman’s uterus is thought to begin. Exceptions would be made for the life and health of the mother.

Similarly the House passed a bi-partisan bill codifying same-sex marriage in July, worried that the right would not withstand the new conservative faction on the Supreme Court. The Senate pushed its vote to after the election concerned about getting the necessary Republican votes for it to pass. 

Expand Voting Rights

The House approved a bill requiring states with a history of voting rights discrimination to get approval from the Department of Justice for changes to voting laws. Another would make forbid partisan gerrymandering, designate Election Day a holiday, make it easier to register at places such as the Departments of Motor Vehicles, establish early voting periods of at least 15 days, allow voting by mail without reason and make it easier for people with disabilities to vote. The legislation stalled in the Senate.

Green burials. Aquamation. Human composting. As people around the U.S. are feeling the impacts of climate change, many death services companies are seeing an uptick in interest in eco-friendly disposal options.

Broaden Climate Change Legislation

One of the most significant legislative successes of the Biden administration, the Inflation Reduction Act is a far reaching measure whose goal is to take on climate change, slow inflation, reduce the deficit, lower prescription drug prices and impose a minimum tax on the profits on the largest corporations. It replaced the Build Back Better plan that ran up against opposition from Manchin. The Inflation Reduction Act includes $370 billion for climate change and clean-energy production. 

Build Back Better

Build Back Better, a $2 trillion spending package, faltered in Congress when it lost support among some Democrats. Manchin in particular, who refused to move forward with the bill at the end of 2021. Democrats could try to revive parts of it that were dropped.

The plan started out with a $3.5 trillion price tag. Some Democrats had hoped to expand social services to provide such benefits as universal pre-kindergarten programs, free community college and paid family and medical leave. Republicans called the plan socialism. Democrats could try to revive some or all of their proposals.

Generation Z voters are the least likely to identify as conservative, but they're also the most likely to disapprove of the job President Biden is doing, and that's a growing problem for Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterms. NBCLX political editor Noah Pransky breaks down why Gen Z feels this way and what Dems are doing to fight it.
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