Economists Say Offense Isn't Answer to Yankee Problems

It seems that the Yankees have put their offseason and a potential return to playoff glory on the wide back of CC Sabathia. As we wait to find out if he'll accept their offer, there's ample time to discuss the wisdom of the team's choices.

Their choice is backed up by a study done by economics students at Manhattan College, as reported on Peter Abraham's Yankees blog for the Journal News. The students looked at win shares and found that "starting pitching is what separated the elite teams from the rest and there was a wide disparity."

The Yankees do need rotation help, but it won't be worth all that much  they'll still fall short of the Red Sox and Rays. And they very well might if they don't improve a lineup that wasn't great last season and has lost contributors like Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. They count on rebounds and/or returns to form from Robinson Cano, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada to keep the offense cooking, an assumption that could play out either way. 

For the sake of argument, though, we'll agree that preventing runs is more important that scoring them. There's something  that goes unmentioned by both the study and Abraham that is crucial to that endeavor. 

Good starting pitchers can become great if their defense helps them prevent more runs than average. Conversely, a poor defense can make even the best pitchers struggle to win games. The Yankees have been getting worse defensively every year and they don't appear to be making any moves to get better in that area. It would be interesting to see how the study of win shares broke down based on the defenses that backed up the starting pitchers of the elite teams.

A team with average pitching and outstanding hitting can mash their way to a fair number of wins, as can a team that thrives on pitching and defense. When you have a team that pitches well but doesn't hit or field to the same standard, though, you aren't winning much of anything.  

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