Rookie of the Year Review

With the post-season upon us it's time to evaluate pre-season predictions, and in this case that's the Rookie of the Year preview I penned back in early April. It's the third season of the column, and the 2006 and 2007 versions can be found in the archives. While the names at the top were among the early season favorites, many of the rest of the top contributors weren't even in the majors in April and some didn't even make the 'field' list of candidates. All were covered in this space once promoted, and I'll review those comments along with those from the preview column. At the end of each league I'll cast my wish list of a ballot.

American League

Projected Top 10

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF Red Sox (5:1)
2. Clay Buchholz, RHP Red Sox (11:2)
3. Joba Chamberlain, RHP Yankees (7:1)
4. Ian Kennedy, RHP Yankees (9:1)
5. Evan Longoria, 3B Rays (11:1)
6. Alexei Ramirez, 2B White Sox (15:1)
7. Daric Barton, 1B Athletics (18:1)
8. Nick Adenhart, RHP Angels (25:1)
9. Carlos Gonzalez, OF Athletics (30:1)
10. Shelley Duncan, 1B Yankees (40:1)

The performance of Evan Longoria made it moot, but Ellsbury would have finished very highly in the voting if he could have hit .300 or .310 instead of .280. His 50 steals in 61 tries were excellent, but he slugged just .394 and posted a disappointing .336 on-base percentage. There was considerable debate about Ellsbury's power potential this spring, and thus far the pessimists look right on point. I still think he has more potential in that department, and he certainly has batting average upside. He could be a bargain in drafts next season.

A finger injury early in the year affected Buchholz and landed him on the disabled list, but his struggles were much more than that. Despite three plus pitches and a solid fourth offering, Buchholz gave up 93 hits, including 11 homers, in 76 innings. He also walked 41 batters and finished with a 6.75 ERA. Luck was a part of that as Buchholz's FIP was 4.86, but it was still disappointing. The club will try to alter his approach and get his command back to being an asset next spring. He's still just 24, so don't give up on him.

Chamberlain was expectedly dominant in a relief role, then moved to the rotation on June 8. He was sent to the disabled list with rotator-cuff tendonitis after his August 4 start, and returned on September 2 as a reliever. He was still very valuable with a 2.60 ERA in 100 1/3 innings overall, with a 2.76 as a starter and 2.31 in relief.Kennedy couldn't find his command and had a terrible nine starts to begin the year. He then went on the DL with a lat strain and made just one more appearance in the majors. His 8.17 ERA isn't any indicator of his talent, and he was excellent once back in the minors. Give him a mulligan.

Longoria would have been first on this list, and was when I did my prediction for the Rotoworld draft guide during the winter, had the Rays not sent him to the minors to start the year. He had a fantastic spring and it's clear the move service time motivated, but they appeased those concerns by promoting Longoria to the majors two weeks into the season and then signing him to a long-term deal just a week later. I projected he'd hit .280 with 18 homers and 65 RBI in 105 games, and he ended up at .272 with 27 homers and 85 RBI in 122 games. He would have blown the playing time projection out of the water if not for a wrist injury that sidelined him for a month.

Ramirez ended up playing mostly second base, where he's a poor defender, but both the White Sox and fantasy owners were happy with his .290-21-77-13 season in 135 games. In the preview column I said a .270-20 season couldn't be ruled out, making him a good late flier.Barton drew plenty of walks, but he struck out more than expected, didn't hit for average, and showed as little power as some, including myself, feared. He's been on our radar forever, but he's still just 23 and will be a solid gamble for a cheap price in 2009.

Adenhart's strikeout rate remained down as it was in 2007, but he suddenly added command and home run problems in 2008. He ended with a 5.76 ERA and 110/75 K/BB in 145 1/3 Triple-A innings. His stock has dropped more than anyone else listed here.Gonzalez got his opportunity, but he was still raw as expected and could have used more time in the minors. He ended with a .242/.273/.361 mark in 302 at-bats.Duncan didn't hit at all when given a chance in May, then struggled for the most part in Triple-A. Any chance of being a platoon player is probably gone for the 29-year-old.

The Field (18:1)

Aaron Laffey (LHP, Indians), Brandon Wood (3B, Angels), Jeff Niemann (RHP, Rays), David Murphy (OF, Rangers), Masahide Kobayashi (RHP, Indians), Jed Lowrie (SS, Red Sox), Wladimir Balentien (OF, Mariners), Rich Thompson (RHP, Angels), Nick Blackburn (RHP, Twins), Adam Miller (RHP, Indians), Kevin Mulvey (RHP, Twins), Yasuhiko Yabuta (RHP, Royals), Reid Brignac (SS, Rays), Jeff Clement (C, Mariners), David Price (LHP, Rays), Luke Hochevar (RHP, Royals), Gio Gonzalez (LHP, Athletics), Chuck Lofgren (LHP, Indians), Philip Humber (RHP, Twins), Kazuo Fukumori (RHP, Rangers), Garrett Olson (LHP, Orioles), Ryan Sweeney (OF, Athletics), Wade Davis (RHP, Devil Rays), Aaron Cunningham (OF, Athletics), Alan Horne (RHP, Yankees), Radhames Liz (RHP, Orioles), Luis Hernandez (SS, Orioles)

Laffey had an excellent April, but started mixing in disaster starts in May and then collapsed in mid June. The Indians were proactive and sent him to the minors with a 4.23 ERA, but he struggled in Triple-A and then missed the rest of the year with an elbow injury. He's still a potential No. 3 starter or innings eater.Wood got hot late, but he's still not making progress in the strikeout department and his stock continues to fall.Murphy had a nice 74 RBI in 108 games, but his 786 OPS was hardly inspiring. He's a third outfielder at best, and quite possibly just a good fourth.Lowrie excelled early after being promoted, then struggled badly and will end the year with a 739 OPS and just two homers in 260 at-bats. His 25 doubles are very promising, however.

Balentien still swings at too many bad pitches, and misses too many hittable ones. He's not good enough to strike out 79 times in 243 at-bats.Blackburn was a clear miss as he posted a 4.14 ERA in 32 starts. However, his 93/36 K/BB isn't very pretty and neither is his 1.37 WHIP. I'll be expecting some regression next season.Miller got hurt again; he's not a Top 100 prospect any more with his thesis-length injury list.I was more disappointed with Clement's 654 OPS in 203 at-bats than any other performance on this list. He's much, much better than that; buy-low.Gio Gonzalez, Garrett Olson, and Radhames Liz simply all weren't ready despite significant opportunities...Sweeney turned in a solid 733 OPS in 384 at-bats.

Top 10 Other Rookies

1. Mike Aviles
2. Brad Ziegler
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Chris Davis
5. Denard Span
6. Jose Arredondo
7. Joey Devine
8. Justin Masterson
9. Greg Smith
10. James Johnson

Aviles was gangbusters for the first two months after being promoted, posting a combined 890 OPS. He dipped to a still solid 794 over the last two months, but his overall .325/.354/.480 mark was a big plus for the Royals. He's already 27, but he's now the club's starting shortstop for the foreseeable future.Ziegler broke a 101 year-old record for scoreless innings to start a career with 39. He finished with a 1.06 ERA and 11 saves in 59 2/3 innings. He's also given up just two homers in 162 1/3 innings since switching to a sidearm delivery. I strongly recommended him in AL-only formats due to his command, tricky delivery, and high ground ball rate.Galarraga had a solid 3.73 ERA in 28 starts, but his 4.89 FIP suggests he's the most likely player on this list to be a flash in the pan. I don't see much reason to disagree.

Most of the rest of the list is pitchers who either excelled in relief or did solid jobs split between the bullpen and the rotation. Smith was one exception with a solid 4.16 ERA in 32 starts; he should have been on the pre-season list.Davis hit 23 doubles and 17 homers in 295 at-bats. High strikeout totals in the minors were a concern, but I wrote when Davis was called up that, "Davis is the most likely player on this list to help a fantasy team win a title...[Davis] hits the ball with such authority and so frequently squares the bat on the ball when he does make contact that I think there's a decent chance he hits .280 or better right away." He ended up batting .285 with 88 strikeouts in 295 at-bats and was one of the best mid-season claims of the season.I wasn't' as high on Span, but he put together a solid .296/.386/.435 in 345 at-bats while also picking up 18 steals in 25 tries. He's a legitimate starter if the batting average and walk rates remain that high, but it's a new skill for the 24-year-old and I have some doubts.

American League Ballot

1. Evan Longoria
2. Mike Aviles
3. Brad Ziegler

Longoria is the choice here, but it's not as close as some may think. Aviles had an OPS 40 points lower in 67 less plate appearances, but relative to position Aviles was nearly as impressive. Aviles also rated out surprisingly solid defensively. There isn't a question who you'd take going forward, but for this year Aviles was excellent. Ziegler over Galarraga and Chamberlain is a tough one. He has the lowest VORP of the three, but also the highest WPA and is in the middle in WPA/LI. I'll use his historical accomplishment as the tie-breaker, but I'm not averse to any of the three.

National League

Projected Top 10

1. Kosuke Fukudome, OF Cubs (4:1)
2. Johnny Cueto, RHP Reds (6:1)
3. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP Dodgers (8:1)
4. Geovany Soto, C Cubs (10:1)
5. Joey Votto, 1B Reds (15:1)
6. Colby Rasmus, OF Cardinals (16:1)
7. Jay Bruce, OF Reds (18:1)
8. Chase Headley, OF Padres (22:1)
9. J.R. Towles, C Astros (25:1)
10. Jair Jurrjens, RHP Braves (35:1)

Fukudome had a solid start to the year with an on-base percentage over .380 in each of the first three months. However, he had just six homers during that span and tailed off badly down the stretch. His .217/.314/.326 mark in the second half was terrible, and he lost his starting gig because of it. Perhaps Fukudome will readjust to the pitchers that have obviously adjusted to his game and post a 35 double/18 homer campaign as I thought he would, but the extended struggles mean he's just a flier next year.

Cueto had a starting gig and an underrated arm on his side this spring, but he finished with a disappointing 4.81 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. His 158 strikeouts in 174 innings at the age of 22 is a big plus, but Cueto made too many mistake pitches en route to allowing 29 homers. He also showed worse command than expected with 68 walks. Cueto still has the fastball-slider combination that made him a top 10 pitching prospect, but he'll have to work on keeping hitters off balance and hitting his spots more frequently. Utilizing a potential plus change more often, which he threw just seven percent of the time, would be a good start. Cueto's rookie season shouldn't dim his long-term outlook by much, if at all.

I thought a 15-win, 3.50 ERA season was in reach for Kuroda, but predicted a 12-win 3.90 ERA campaign. Kuroda went 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA in 183 1/3 innings, making that projection look pretty good. Prone to the disaster start, Kuroda could improve his rate stats simply by being a little more consistency.

I expressed concerns with Soto somewhat randomly breaking out during this third trip in Triple-A last year, but ultimately noted that his power was probably for real and his batting average wasn't. I ended up pegging him as a .270-20-75 type of player that could get serious consideration for the award if he hit a bit better than that. Soto ended up at .285-23-86 with 35 doubles and 62 walks, giving him a very nice .285/.364/.504 line. He also played surprisingly frequently, totaling 141 games and 494 at-bats.

Votto struggled with consistency early in the year, but ended with a bang thanks to a .309/.400/.723 line that included eight doubles and nine homers in September. He finished with a .297/.368/.506 mark that included 32 doubles, 24 homers, 84 RBI, and a solid 102/59 K/BB in 526 at-bats. I wrote this spring that, "If given 500 at-bats, Votto could smack 20 homers and drive in 85 runs, giving him a shot at some hardware." That hardware will prove elusive, but Votto was one of the NL's top three rookies and one of my better predictions. He has the potential to develop further, so Votto will be a recommended draft pick next spring.

I like Rasmus more than most, picking him to win the award for the draft guide back in January. I love(d) his power, and thought he'd be able to post a surprisingly solid average despite a high strikeout rate and a history of mediocre batting averages in the minors. Rasmus wasn't given a chance, took three months to get going, then got injured right when he started to hit. He's still a top prospect.Bruce was called up in late May and finished with a .254/.314/.453 mark in 413 at-bats. The 110 strikeouts and low batting average were concerns, but 21-year-olds who hit 21 homers in the majors are rare. This performance did nothing to lower his stock.

Headley got a shot mid-way through the season and posted a respectable .269/.337/.420 line with 19 doubles and nine homers in 331 at-bats. Both the power and batting average should increase with experience.Towles couldn't take advantage of multiple opportunities in April or May, then was sent back to the minors for more seasoning. He only received sporadic chances from them on, but since he posted an 870 OPS in Triple-A he still looks like a future regular.Jurrjens was surprisingly effective, recording a 3.67 ERA despite a pedestrian 139/70 K/BB in 188 1/3 innings. The key to his success was allowing just 11 homers, a rate that won't continue going forward. One of the bigger candidates to regress next year, Jurrjens was nonetheless extremely valuable in 2008.

The Field (8:1)

Homer Bailey (RHP, Reds), Clayton Kershaw (LHP, Dodgers), Franklin Morales (RHP, Rockies), Steven Pearce (OF, Pirates), Matt Antonelli (2B, Padres), Wade LeBlanc (LHP, Padres), Ross Detwiler (LHP, Nationals), Brian Barton (OF, Cardinals), Brandon Jones (OF, Braves), Chin-lung Hu (2B, Dodgers), Jayson Nix (2B, Rockies), Kevin Hart (RHP, Cubs), Cameron Maybin (OF, Marlins), Andy LaRoche (3B, Dodgers), Max Scherzer (RHP, Diamondbacks), Eugenio Velez (2B, Giants), Blake DeWitt (3B, Dodgers), Ian Stewart (3B/2B Rockies), James McDonald (RHP, Dodgers), Jon Meloan (RHP, Dodgers), Joe Thatcher (LHP, Padres), Matt LaPorta (OF, Brewers), Jordan Schafer (OF, Braves), Nate Schierholtz (OF, Giants), Justin Huber (OF, Padres), Justin Maxwell (OF, Nationals), Delwyn Young (OF, Dodgers), Callix Crabbe (2B, Padres), Erick Threets (RHP, Giants)

Bailey got a shot in the majors in June despite struggling badly in Triple-A during May and was predictably lit up. He did little to rehab his value after returning to the minors. There's still a lot of potential here, but his stock has slipped.Kershaw ended up throwing 107 2/3 innings in the majors with a 4.26 ERA and 100/52 K/BB. He could stand to throw his changeup more, but improved command is all that's really stopping him from being an elite pitcher.I called Morales one of the most likely busts of the season in the Rotoworld draft guide, and he threw just 25 1/3 big league innings all season.

Pearce and Antonelli were the two biggest enigmas of the season, as both players suddenly lost their ability to hit. Their stocks are down now, but they're fun $1 buys in keeper leagues.LeBlanc and Detwiler were considered close to an opportunity in the majors, but both struggled mightily instead. Detwiler's stock in particular is way down; he's gone from Top 10 pick to Top 100 prospect to a long shot in just under two years.Nix predictably couldn't do anything with a job opening in Colorado.LaRoche finally got a shot in Pittsburgh but struggled hitting anything. He gets a last shot in 2009, and since he'll be dirt cheap NL-only leaguers should make him a priority in the end game.

Top 10 Other Rookies

1. John Lannan
2. Jorge Campillo
3. Chris Volstad
4. Cory Wade
5. Joe Nelson
6. John Baker
7. Martin Prado
8. Chris Perez
9. Chris Dickerson
10. Pablo Sandoval

In part because I identified many of the candidates in the field list, and in part because the NL had a down year for rookies, this list isn't as spectacular as the AL version. Lannan and Campillo were solid No. 3 starters despite many, including myself, seeing them as potential No. 4s. Volstad pitched just 84 1/3 innings, but his 2.88 ERA and just three homers allowed were stellar. His 52/36 K/BB wasn't as nice and the home runs will surely increase in rate next season. However, Volstad's extreme groundball tendencies could keep his ERA around 4.00.

Wade, Nelson, and Perez had impressive relief debuts, with Perez seeing time as closer late in the year.Baker was an out of nowhere 27-year-old catcher who I accidentally bid on in one league this year (I thought it was Jeff Baker).Prado posted a nice .320/.377/.461 mark in 228 at-bats, and could allow the Braves to trade a middle infielder this winter.That Dickerson and Sandoval made the list with a combined 276 plate appearances, though they were impressive, shows the weakness of this list.

National League Ballot

1. Geovany Soto
2. Joey Votto
3. Jair Jurrjens

This award is easily Soto's and he's set himself up to be one of the league's top three catchers going forward. Even if his batting average regresses, he looks good for a bunch of 30-double/20-homer seasons. Votto should finish second thanks to his huge September, though some may discount the production since the Reds were out of the race and Votto's statistics weren't that special a month ago. Jurrjens gets the slight nod of Kuroda, though I'd certainly take Kuroda for 2009. There was a big drop to the fifth place finisher which is between Chris Volstad, John Lannan, and Jorge Campillo.

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