<![CDATA[NBC Connecticut - Connecticut Weather News and Coverage]]>Copyright 2017https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories http://media.nbcnewyork.com/designimages/NBC_Connecticut.png NBC Connecticut https://www.nbcconnecticut.comen-usTue, 21 Nov 2017 14:36:01 -0500Tue, 21 Nov 2017 14:36:01 -0500NBC Owned Television Stations <![CDATA[Today's Forecast]]> https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/first+alert_weather+1200.jpg

 FIRST ALERT FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the middle 50s. SW winds 10-20 mph.

Tonight: Clouding up with rain by morning. Lows near 40. 

Wednesday: A chance of a period of morning rain, then a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the middle to upper 40s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving): Mostly sunny and pleasant. Highs in the low 40s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the middle 40s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy a chance of showers. Highs in the middle 50s.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with a few flurries mixing in. Highs near 40.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the middle 30s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 40s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs in the middle 40s.

Get your detailed exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast plus hour-by-hour weather and interactive radar by downloading the NBC Connecticut app.

More detailed forecast here

Maps and radar here

Active weather alerts here

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Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 1am, then patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Monday
A chance of showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.M



Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut
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<![CDATA[Get Closing Alerts]]> Mon, 11 Nov 2013 15:23:20 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/closing+central+first+alert.jpg
View Full Story

Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut]]>
<![CDATA[Nice Looking Thanksgiving Week]]> Mon, 20 Nov 2017 21:59:17 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/311*120/euro112017.PNG

I love snow but not this week! Too many errands, too many travel plans, too much going on, and too much pressure for your friendly neighborhood weatherman! 

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A few showers on Wednesday followed by cooler than average temperatures on Thanksgiving is about all we have of note this week. We'll take that. You can see some colder air diving south into southern New England on Thursday thanks to a dip in the jet stream.

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The one thing I am watching closely is Sunday and Monday (11/26-27). A bigger dip in the jet stream coupled with a big ridge of high pressure over Greenland known as a -NAO is an intriguing setup. At this point not much is modeled but it's not a bad idea to keep an eye on this window.

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We have colder temperatures and flurries currently in the forecast. Hopefully we won't have to change it!


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<![CDATA[Icy Roads Caused Issues in Parts of the State This Morning]]> Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:58:40 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Branford+ice+Interstate+95.jpg

Scattered snow showers are making slick roads a concern for parts of the state this morning. In Bristol, a school bus was involved in a fender bender. Students were onboard and no injuries are reported.

The snow showers came to Connecticut all the way from Lake Ontario and were the result of lake effect snow. Strong upper-level northwest winds allowed these snow showers to travel further than they typically do.

With temperatures hovering just around freezing, some of the snow melted and refroze, causing icy conditions on the roads.

A car flipped over on Interstate 95 in Branford. It's not clear if weather was a factor in that crash. 

Interstate 91 northbound was shut down in Cromwell when icy conditions caused multiple accidents.

Multiple accidents were also reported along Interstate 84, with icy spots reported in Southington and from exit 32 to the Plainville line.

In Winsted, a newspaper delivery driver slid off Torrington Road due to black ice. The driver was not hurt.

Officials from the Department of Transportation said they received a weather alert around 2:45 a.m. and there was not enough notice to pretreat the roads. 

"In this particular case, there wasn't really any advance notice." Kevin Nursick, of the DOT, said. "It was a weather alert, 2:30, 2:45 this morning, saying, 'hey spotty flurries coming in throughout the state,' so we started dispatching crews to deal with that, but not nearly enough time to set up for a pre-treatment scenario."

DOT crews started treat the roads in the area, which are covered in black ice.

Our latest computer models are showing that the snow shower activity should come to an end by daybreak. 

Take a look at the scene this morning in Lisbon. This video was taken just after 3 a.m.

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Temperatures in southeastern Connecticut are just above freezing, therefore the snow didn't stick to the surface. It did however leave the road surfaces wet and with temperatures hovering right around 33 degrees this could lead to patches of black ice.

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Many cities and towns throughout the state experienced snow. Make sure to give yourself a little extra time to clear off your car this morning.

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If it snowed where you are, send your photos to shareit@nbcconnecticut.com or upload them here.



Photo Credit: @Frankm333
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<![CDATA[Windy Weather to Continue Through Sunday]]> Sun, 19 Nov 2017 15:47:38 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/WINDHAM-TREE-DAMAGE.jpg

Some people in Connecticut woke up in the dark Sunday morning after powerful winds and rain swept through and knocked out power.

Outage numbers have been bouncing back and forth all day. As of 3:30 p.m., Eversource was reporting 7,676 customers without power. In Griswold, 88 percent of town was out of power.

United Illuminating reported 246 without power as of 3:37 p.m.

In Old Saybrook winds whipped up the waves all morning. And while many would rather stay warm under the blankets, a few people braved the elements to watch the storm come in.

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"It’s exciting to see all the waves and see what’s going on," said resident Paul Loomis

"The waves are wild. The water’s high," Jim Kochis commented.

In South Windham wind took down trees and branches on Old Windham Road.

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The worst of the storm moved through overnight, bringing wind gusts around 40 mph. A wind advisory was in effect for most of the state, and a high wind warning for southeastern Connecticut, though the high wind warning was canceled by Sunday morning.

The NBC Connecticut meteorologists say wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph are expected through most of Sunday. For the full forecast, click here.

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Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut
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<![CDATA[First Alert: High Wind Warning for Parts of the State]]> Sat, 18 Nov 2017 17:57:32 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Saturday+First+Alert+CP.jpg

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists have issued a First Alert for strong winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

A High Wind Warning is in effect for coastal New London and Middlesex counties. Wind Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the state.

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The strongest winds move in late tonight and Sunday morning with gusts of 40 to 50 mph statewide and isolated gusts higher along the southeast shoreline. 

A strengthening low pressure system will move over the Great Lakes region on Saturday while high pressure jogs to the east. This weather setup will lead to a strong southerly wind Saturday evening into Sunday morning. 

Take a look at First Alert Future Wind Gusts at 9 p.m. on Saturday. 

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Strong winds could lead to sporadic power outages throughout the state as there is the possibility of small tree limbs falling.

In addition to the wind aspect of the storm we're also tracking rain.

Most of Saturday should remain dry with scattered showers entering the state after 2 p.m.

Scroll through below for an hour by hour synopsis of First Alert Future Radar.

8 P.M. Saturday - Periods of heavy rain and strong winds throughout the state.

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8 A.M. Sunday: The rain will be over by the morning with a breezy northwest wind.

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<![CDATA[Afternoon Hail ]]> Thu, 16 Nov 2017 21:51:53 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/DOx_PuoXUAE2NzO.jpg

Beautiful clouds, hailstones, rainbows, and downpours. It was a fun afternoon for a weather geek! 

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Cold air aloft produced a pocket of instability over Connecticut which lead to the stormy weather. About 10,000 feet up the temperature was close to -12C while the temperature near the ground was in the low to mid 50s. This was a classic setup for low topped thunderstorms with a fair amount of moisture above our heads.

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The fact the storms were fairly isolated, shallow, and occured near sunset produced such vibrant colors and rainbows across the state. Check out this photo gallery for some of your amazing shots. This afternoon's weather was pretty sweet :) 

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Looking forward our next storm approaches this weekend and with it comes some gusty wind and another round of rain. At this point it looks like most of the rain will be Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. A well timed rain event! There is the potential for strong wind Sunday on the backside of the low and a low risk for tree and power line issues.


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<![CDATA[Rainbow Connection Across Connecticut]]> Thu, 16 Nov 2017 18:31:06 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/ef28a56b343d43a2a20c1097c3d838d7.JPG.jpg After storms moved through on Thursday, people across the state were treated to a wonderful show of rainbows.

Photo Credit: Darlene]]>
<![CDATA[The Timing on Thursday's Rain]]> Wed, 15 Nov 2017 16:54:26 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/COVER+PHOTO1.jpg ]]> <![CDATA[A Look Ahead to Thanksgiving Week]]> Tue, 14 Nov 2017 21:33:48 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/eps_t850_anom_noram_216.png

At first glance the weather pattern for Thanksgiving week is a concerning one. A colder than normal pattern thanks in part to an infamous "NAO block". Many of our big snowstorms are associated with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation of -NAO and we have that next week!

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Before we get too far ahead of ourselves there's a big reason why we shouldn't be too worried. While a sprawling ridge of high pressure blocks up the jet stream over Greenland and Baffin Bay (the -NAO) the jet stream configuration over Canada and the United States isn't too ideal for snow here. The biggest reason why is that the ridge of high pressure that stretches from the Four Corners through North Dakota is a bit too far east and it's too positively tilted (i.e. tilting eastward as you head poleward).

Given this look it's not a surprise that there's not much in the way of snow or coastal storminess modeled. While a -NAO can be a huge help for getting a big snowstorm in New England it doesn't always mean we'll get snow. In this case other factors upstream in the jet stream will preclude this -NAO as currently modeled from producing. In fact, in the 6-10 day period not one out of 51 European ensemble members have significant snow in Connecticut! 

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Can things change? Of course. A slightly different orientation of that ridge axist o the west or even a change in location could allow things to get more interesting. More spacing between the ridge axis and the -NAO block would give disturbances more opportunity to amplify and smack us. Things are just spaced too close togther right now.

For now, I'm cautiously optimistic the Wednesday-Friday period around Thanksgiving will be chilly but not too stormy. Stay tuned!


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<![CDATA[Overnight Black Ice?]]> Mon, 13 Nov 2017 21:01:05 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/hrrr_ref_neng_10_01.png

Dropping temperatures and a bit of low level moisture means a few towns could see a bit of black ice developing later tonight. While it certainly doesn't look like a big deal some towns could get a big slick.

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This sounding from the NAM shows a pocket of low level moisture with near 100% relative humidity. While it is below freezing the coldest the clouds get is only about -2 or -3C which means they'll be ice free. This can result in pockets of freezing drizzle. 

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Beyond Tuesday the weather pattern remains active but not too active. A bit of rain on Thuesday and more rain on Saturday. There is a chance for something wintry around Thanksgiving with a brief -NAO (North Atlantic Osciallation). Not much else to say about it now other than that we're watching it! 


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<![CDATA[Icy Roads Possible in Parts of State Tonight]]> Mon, 13 Nov 2017 20:39:15 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/lime-rock-snow-pic.jpg

Some parts of Connecticut could see icing on the roads Monday night and into Tuesday morning as temperatures dip overnight.

A bit of light drizzle and fog will develop after midnight and with temperatures near freezing a bit of icing is possible. Black ice could cause issues on untreated surfaces in the hilltowns. 

The potentially slick conditions come after a day when snow fell in areas of northwest Connecticut.

Snow was reported Monday in areas in northwest Connecticut, including Litchfield, Torrington, Cornwall and even in Farmington.

The rest of the state saw light rain through most of the day.

Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid-to-upper 40s on Tuesday and our next chance of rain could come on Thursday.



Photo Credit: Mimi Harson]]>
<![CDATA[Winter Cold]]> Fri, 10 Nov 2017 21:31:16 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/DOUSiFHWkAEH1yQ.jpg

It's a cold night across the state with temperatures dropping through the 20s. We're going to be close to record lows by morning but may fall just short.

The cold shot peaks by morning and temperatures will moderate over the coming days.

Most of the next week looks pretty quiet. I don't see a whole lot to get excited about through next weekend. What we call a "zonal flow" will exist across the most of the Lower 48 through next week which will keep temperatures fairly close to normal and preclude any big storms from forming nearby.

By next weekend, however, our zonal flow becomes much more amplified. A large blocking ridge over Greenland which flips the North Atlantic Oscillation to negative. This will increase our chances for stormy weather and possibly even some snow before Thanksgiving. 


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<![CDATA[A Cold Friday Evening & Weekend Forecast]]> Fri, 10 Nov 2017 16:30:39 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Cover+Photo+Friday+Article.jpg

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are forecasting the cold weather to continue into Veterans day.

Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon and into the evening with wind chill values in the single digits for parts of the state tonight.

Take a look at wind chill values this evening. This is the temperature it will feel like to exposed skin. 

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The coldest of the weather arrives tomorrow morning.

Areas of the state will be flirting or exceeding record breaking cold temperatures.

The low temperature record for the Hartford area is 12 degrees set in 1956 we're forecasting a low of 13 degrees.

The low temperature record for the shoreline is 22 degrees set in 1956 we're expecting to set a new record with a forecasted low temperature of 17 degrees.

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The good news is that the cold snap is rather short lived. Temperatures will be into the middle 40s for Sunday and Monday and flirting with 50 degrees by the middle of next week.

Check out the video forecast above the the "First Alert Exclusive 10 Day Forecast".


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<![CDATA[Timing out the Tumbling Temperatures]]> Fri, 10 Nov 2017 12:44:26 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/cms989.jpg ]]> <![CDATA[Single-Digit Wind Chills Moving into Connecticut]]> Fri, 10 Nov 2017 07:49:59 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Cold+Temp+Cover+Photo.png

NBC Connecticut meteorologists are forecasting temperatures that will feel like the middle of winter Friday into Saturday. 

In fact, we're forecasting temperatures to be so cold that they could break low-temperature records Saturday morning.

After temperatures in the upper 40s low 50s major changes are in-store for today and Saturday. A wind advisory is in effect for parts of Connecticut.

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Take a look at temperatures Friday at 5 a.m., parts of the state are in the 40s as the cold front continues to push through.

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Temperatures will be colder by 3 p.m. than they were first thing in the morning. This is a glimpse at what you can expect when you step outside at 3 p.m. on Friday.

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What will make these temperatures feel even worse is a gusty wind out of the northeast. The northeast wind will lead to wind chill values in the single digits and teens this morning.

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In addition to the gusty winds, there is also a chance for a few snow squall especially for areas of western Connecticut. 

The coldest temperatures arrive Friday night and especially by first thing Saturday morning. Some towns could be waking up to temperatures in the single digits while most of the state including the shoreline will experience temperatures between 10 and 20 degrees.

The cold blast will be rather short with a "warm-up" by Sunday with high temperatures in the middle 40s.


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<![CDATA[First Flakes of the Season]]> Tue, 07 Nov 2017 21:12:47 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/DOEr8ETXkAAa7H4.jpg

As expected rain has transitioned to a mix of rain and snow in the hills and some towns have even flipped to all snow. A combination of dry low level air resulting in evaporational cooling and a slow drain of colder air from the north. 

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No accumulation is expected (on the roads at least) though I can't rule out a slushy coating in some of the high hill towns such as Norfolk, Colebrook, and Hartland. Even Wolcott at about 1,000 feet could see a slushy coating. As always, dual polarization radar was an incredible tool in tracking the the height of the above freezing level in the clouds. Radar allows us to pick up where melting snowflakes are occuring. 

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Beyond tonight the big story is going to be a blast of Arctic cold moving in on Friday. A brief but impressive surge of cold air will send wind chills into the single digits and teens by afternoon. A big change from our record warm October! 


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<![CDATA[Some Arctic Chill]]> Mon, 06 Nov 2017 21:00:31 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gefs_t850a_conus_17.png

A blast of Arctic cold on Friday looks very impressive. Temperatures in the 30s and gusty winds will result in wind chills in the teens. Ouch. Before we get there we've got a minor issue on Tuesday. 

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A weak wave of low pressure will move south of southern New England Tuesday evening. There's some question exactly how much moisture will move in AND how dry it will be near the ground.

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The dry air near the ground is key to the forecast. We know the clouds above us will be producing snow - the question is whether that snow will make it to the ground. If the air is too dry (as the sounding above off the GFS shows) the snow will sublimate or dry up before reaching the ground.

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If the dry air near the ground isn't too dry and better moisture and lift moves in aloft the dry air will allow the atmosphere to cool through evaporative cooling and will likely be cold enough for a bit of snow - or at least some rain mixed with snow. The NAM sounding above in Hartford shows that potential with the dry layer being wiped out. While quite unlikely we can't rule out a slushy coating in the hills but this is not currently in the forecast.

Beyond Tuesay evening's minor excitement the big story will be the big cold moving in on Friday. At this point the GFS MOS is printing out a remarkable 14F low on Saturday morning with temperatures in the 30s on Friday. 

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While we're currently forecasting 22F this kind of cold is unusual for early November. The temperature has only reached 20F of lower 19 times since 1905 in the Hartford area prior to November 11th. In fact if the 14F for Hartford verified it would be the second coldest temperature on record for so early in the year. Only November 11, 1956 would be colder at 12F.  The last time temperatures reached the teens this early in the fall was November 10, 2004. Stay tuned - and stay warm! 


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<![CDATA[Tracking the First Snowflakes of the Season]]> Tue, 07 Nov 2017 16:55:19 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Cover+Photo+Tuesday+Night.png

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are tracking rain showers and snow flurries for the evening and then a significant cool down by Friday.

A weak disturbance is tracking to the south of Connecticut bringing with it light rain and which may transition to wet snow flakes in the hill towns.

The disturbance will bring a small area of moisture into the state this evening. The area of moisture may produce wet snowflakes, especially for the hill towns.

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Take a look at First Alert Future Radar through this evening. The best chance for snow flurries and light snow is between 6 p.m. and midnight.

FIRST ALERT FUTURE RADAR 6 P.M.

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FIRST ALERT FUTURE RADAR 8 P.M.

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FIRST ALERT FUTURE RADAR 11 P.M.

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The good news is that we're not forecasting any of the snow to accumulate as the surface temperature is expected to stay above freezing. 

While we're anticipating some cool air over the next couple of days the coldest air doesn't arrive until Friday. 

A blast of cold air will settle into the region Friday and Saturday which could produce another round of flurries or even an isolated snow shower.

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High temperatures Friday afternoon will struggle to move out of the 30s while low temperatures Saturday morning will fall into the teens and 20s. 


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<![CDATA[A Cold Shot!]]> Fri, 03 Nov 2017 19:37:53 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/gefs_t850a_noram_29.png

After the warmest October on record it looks like we may see a legitimate shot of cold air - though it may only last for a day or two. Most of our computer models are picking up a brief Arctic shot next Friday and Saturday with cold air pouring down from southeastern Canada. 

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This isn't a big surprise. For a while our long range models have shown a return to more "normal" weather this month with periodic shots of cooler and warmer weather. Cold isn't all that exciting - let's be honest. The bigger question for me is whether we can squeeze out any snowflakes with this pattern. At this point it isn't looking good. 

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As the cold comes down there's an offshore low will likely wind up and track near New England. It seems likely that it will impact us with any snow though it's not out of the realm of possibility. There's also a chance cold air overhead could lead to some scattered rain or snow showers has the disturbance moves overhead. 

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Check out the European Ensembles for the next 15 days. The Euro has 12 of 51 members showing measurable snow with only 2 of 51 showing more than 2" of accumulation. So yeah there's a chance but don't wax your skis yet.


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<![CDATA[Cooler Weather Working into the State]]> Fri, 03 Nov 2017 16:39:17 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/WebCoverPhoto.png

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are tracking much cooler temperatures as we head into the weekend. 

High temperatures on Friday were near record breaking. A high of 77 degrees at Bradley International Airport today came one degree short of breaking the high temperature record for the day of 78 degrees.

You will feel the chill first thing Saturday morning with temperatures in the 30s throughout much of the state. 

High temperatures on Saturday are only forecasted to climb into the low 50s in the northwest hills and middle 50s throughout interior and coastal Connecticut. 

Take a look at high temperatures for Saturday.

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Temperatures will rise for Sunday and Monday before a stronger shot of cold air arrives by the middle of next week.


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<![CDATA[After a Record Warm October - How's November Look?]]> Thu, 02 Nov 2017 19:00:42 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*123/record1.PNG

Across Connecticut this past month was the warmest October on record. In the Hartford area the average October temperature was 59.9F which beats the old record of 59.7F set back in 2007. In Bridgeport the old record of 61.4 degrees best beat by nearly a full degree with 62.3 degrees!

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October was also an awfully wet month. Finally! After drought conditions started to creep back from a dry end of summer and beginning of fall we made up for that in a big way. Volunteer CoCoRaHS observers recorded more than 10" of rain in three towns - Prospect, Monroe, and North Granby. In my backyard in West Hartford we received 9.31" of rain this month!

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Looking forward, we finally do see some cooler weather ahead. While the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the month shows above average temperatures being the most probable scenario it's not a particularly strong signal. In fact, we can't totally rule out a bit of minor mixed wintry precipitation next week as colder air scoots down from the north and moisture lurks nearby.

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Getting anything to accumulate seems exceptionally unlikely but it is a sign of the season for sure.


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<![CDATA[What a Difference One Year Makes]]> Thu, 02 Nov 2017 17:08:26 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/COVER+PHOTO+%282%291.png

On this date last year most of the state was in a severe drought running a nearly 12 inch year to date rainfall deficit.

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A much different situation this year and much of that reason is thanks to a very wet October. 

This year we're running an over 3 inch surplus from January 1st until today (November 2nd.)

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<![CDATA[Warmest October on Record]]> Wed, 01 Nov 2017 17:27:02 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Cover+Photo+Story1.png

The Hartford area broke a record this past month. October 2017 will go down as the warmest October on record.

The average temperature for the month of October is 52.1 degrees. This year the record was set at 59.9 degrees which beats the previous record. Records in the Hartford area go back to 1905.

As for precipitation we didn't break any record however we did end up well above average. 

The average precipitation for the month of October is 4.25 inches. This year the Hartford area received 8.77 inches which is more than double the monthly average. 

Here's an interesting fact. 7.86 of the 8.77 inches fell within the last 8 days of the month. 


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<![CDATA[Hour by Hour Trick or Treating Forecast]]> Tue, 31 Oct 2017 13:11:34 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/COVER+PHOTO+%281%291.png A chilly evening ahead for Halloween festivities with temperatures falling into the 40s and some 30s throughout the state. There will also be a light breeze at 5 to 10 mph out of the west which will make it feel a few degrees cooler. ]]> <![CDATA[Powerful Sunday Storm]]> Mon, 30 Oct 2017 19:44:33 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/IMG_0024rh.JPG

What is it with these powerful storms during the last weekend of October? The October snowstorm of 2011, Hurricane Sandy in 2012, and now a powerful "southeaster" that knocked out power to 180,000 utility customers in Connecticut.

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The storm set an October record for lowest pressure in many stations in New York State which is a testament to its strength.  Damage was widespread with uprooted trees and snapped power lines throughout New England. 

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Across Connecticut the strongest winds occured in southeastern Connecticut. The WeatherFlow station on the Outer Breakwater in Stonington Harbor gusted to 73 mph. The Groton-New London Airport gusted to 67 mph and there were widespread 50-60 mph gusts across the state. 

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The storm was quite remarkable on radar with a southerly low level jet of near 100 knots (115 mph) showing up over Long Island and moving north into Connecticut.

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Thankfully, only a fraction of these powerful winds mixed down to the ground. Farther north, Mount Mansfield in Vermont gusted to 115 mph as the core of the low level jet crossed the mountain's more than 4,000 foot summit. Mount Washington in New Hampshire gusted to 131 mph! Out on the Cape a gust to 96 mph occurred in Mashpee and Conimicut Light in Warwick, RI gusted to 81 mph. 

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Thankfully the storm's peak arrived at low tide. Believe it or not most of the coastal flooding (and it was minor) occured in the morning as residual water levels in Long Island Sound were shoved toward the coast around daybreak near high tide as the wind shifted to southwesterly. A wind gust of 40 knots in Groton corresponded with this peak in tide levels. Minor issues and flooding were reported from Old Lyme through Stonington. 

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The forecast worked out quite well. We were forecasting 60-70 mph winds along the shoreline and 45-60 mph inland and most areas fell in that range. The peak of the wind occurred almost exactly when we expected between 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. as the core of the low level jet moved overhead. The question always is how much of the wind a couple thousand feet above our head will mix do the surface. Gravity waves and thunderstorms can do it and result in a particularly nasty bout of winds and another way to do it is to decrease the low level stability. We did that through most of Connecticut by increasing the temperature near the ground which promoted a bit of mixing. Here's a look at Hartford which managed to gust to 44 mph as the temperature spiked to 70F after being in the mid 60s a few hours prior.

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One of the reasons the damage was widespread was the incredible amount of rain we've seen over the last 7 days. Bristol has picked up over 10" of rain with my backyard in West Hartford receiving just shy of 10"! Heavy rain and saturated soil managed to uproot a number of trees.

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The good news is our drought is gone and so are any rainfall deficits we've been dealing with this year. The weather looks quiet for the next few days which is great - the weather team could use a break :)


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<![CDATA[Destructive Winds Possible Tonight]]> Sun, 29 Oct 2017 19:45:24 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Wind+Gusts+Sunday+Night.png

8:30 p.m. Update: The storm is behaving as expected so far. Winds are now gusting to 37 mph in Groton and we have a handful of power outages across the state.

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The key is still how much wind will be able to mix down to the surface from aloft. We have a rapidly deepening low off the coast of Delaware lifting north. You can see 3 hour pressure falls in excess fo 9mb/3hr moving north!

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Aloft, our models still show an exceptionally powerful low level jet overhead around midnight. The winds about 5,000 feet above our heads will be in excess of 100 mph. While most of this will not reach the surface some of it may.

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The HRRR model insists a period of destructive winds even inland. That remains a possibility though most of our models keep a narrow stable layer near the surface which will effectively prevent the strongest winds from mixing down. With the potential for convection, gravity waves, and an impinging dry slot I am concerned for gusts in excess of 60 mph statewide. Right now our forecast is for 60-70 mph gusts at the coast and 45-60 mph inland but there is a low risk for the entire state going above 60 mph. With tremendously saturated soil after recent rain a large number of uprooted trees is possible.

Earlier update: A powerful storm which may set records for sea level pressure in October across New York State is likely to produce a brief period of strong damaging wind tonight across the state. The most likely location for damaging winds is along the shoreline where it's not out of the question that winds could gust to hurricane force!!

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The storm that develops will be quite intense. Most of our computer models show a storm with a pressure below 980 mb cutting to our west. This will put us on the windy side of the storm. Most of our computer models show a low level jet somewhere between 60 knots and 100 knots overhead between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. While winds about 5,000 feet above our heads will be that of a category 2 or 3 hurricane the question is how much of that will mix down to the ground.

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Generally, you need an unstable layer near the ground to mix the stronger momentum down. This sounding from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh for tonight in Groton shows the potential for 76 knots of wind (85 mph or so) to mix from that low level jet to the ground due to a shallow unstable layer near the surface (temperatures drop rapidly with height). Other models do not show this feature and keep much more of the wind bottled up above our head. Other things, however, can mix damaging winds to the surface including convection (thunderstorms) that induce vertical circulations and gravity waves which can do the same. We're forecasting wind gusts over 60 mph at the coast and at this time there is a possibility for hurricane force wind gusts around 75 mph! 

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This is a classic setup for damaging wind. Something called a tropopause fold will develop right overhead. This is something we see only in the most intense storms. Effectively, the stratosphere (the layer right above the troposphere) will lower to about 8,000 feet above our heads. A dramatic increase in Ozone will occur at this height. Also, we can see a distinct warm core to this low which tends to happen only in some of the most intense Atlantic cyclones. In fact, 850mb temperatures exceed 20C off the Jersey shore!

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It's really no surprise the atmospheric pressure will plummet. Here's a look at the European Ensemble forecast for this storm - notice a number of lows with pressures below 970mb! If you compare this to record low October pressures this one is outside of climatology for a good chunk of the northeastern U.S. if you exclude Sandy.

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In terms of rainfall 1"-3" of rain is likely across Connecticut with some potential for heavier totals out in western Connecticut. After totals near 5" in some towns last week there may be more uprooted trees than usual given the saturated soil and weakened roots. Flooding is not expected to be a major concern. 

Be prepared to lose power and we may have issues Monday morning with downed trees and lines. Be careful driving late tonight during the brief, but wild, peak of the storm. 


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<![CDATA[Storm Batters Connecticut, Damage Statewide]]> Mon, 30 Oct 2017 03:16:31 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/treecarnewlondon_1200.jpg

4:11 A.M. Update

Power is slowly being restored. Eversource is reporting 157,000 without power and United Illuminating is reporting 7,760 without power.

There are damage reports from multiple cities and towns across Connecticut, including trees and wires down. There are road closures all over due to downed trees and wires. In some areas, power outages are affecting traffic lights. 

12:20 A.M. Update

Power outage numbers continue to climb. Eversource is now reporting over 170,000 customers are without power while United Illuminating is reporting more than 10,000 outages. 

Winds are gusting between 40 and 65 mph with the highest gusts in southeastern Connecticut.

Winds could gust to 70 mph. Strong wind gusts will continue through about 2 a.m. 

There are damage reports from multiple cities and towns across Connecticut, including trees and wires down.

____________________________________________________________

11:30 P.M. Update

The damaging winds have arrived. The Connecticut shoreline is experiencing wind gusts over 50 mph. Unfortunately, the wind gusts will continue to rise over the next couple of hours.

Peak wind gusts will occur from now until about 2 a.m. 

Eversource is reporting nearly 60,000 customers without power. Some of the hardest hit towns are Ledyard, Stonington, Guilford, and Madison.

United Illuminating reported more than 12,500 outages.

The rain should taper off after about midnight leaving the state with scattered showers.

____________________________________________________________

7:45 P.M. Update

Bands of heavy rain are moving through the state with rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour. A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Litchfield county and is in effect until 12:15 a.m. 

Winds are currently gusting between 25 and 35 mph with the higher gusts along the shoreline. Wind gusts will quickly increase in the next couple of hours with gusts over 50 mph expected by 10 p.m.

We're still forecasting peak wind gusts along the shoreline of 60 to even 70 mph. This will approach hurricane force wind status. Areas away from the shoreline can expect wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph at the peak.

Peak wind gusts will occur between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. 

____________________________________________________________

A powerful storm is moving through the state bringing with it damaging winds and heavy rain. The strongest part of the storm moves into the state after 10 p.m.

High winds are expected to cause power outages across the state.

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Weather Impacts:

The wind component of this storm system will likely result in thousands of power outages throughout the state.

The area that will see the highest amount of power outages is the coastal areas of the state.

As of 9 p.m., Eversource reported more than 18,000 customers without power.  United Illuminating reported nearly 3,500 outages.

The Rocky Hill Ferry was closed due to flooding and high water Sunday.

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A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire state.

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The NBC Connecticut team of First Alert meteorologists was forecasting winds to gust between 45 to 60 mph statewide. Even higher gusts are possible along the shoreline and especially areas of southern Middlesex and New London counties. Winds could gust over 60 mph in this part of the state.

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High wind gusts coupled with a wet soil may result in uprooted trees which in return would cause power issues throughout the state.

Check out interactive radar which shows the storm moving through the state.

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In addition to the wind there is also a Flash Flooding Threat.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of Connecticut and is valid through Monday morning. 

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The heaviest rain will fall Sunday evening into the early morning hours of Monday.

Parts of the state already received over 5 inches of rain this past week.

We're forecasting another 1 to 3 inches of rain throughout the state. Luckily the heaviest rain appears to stay to the west of Connecticut impacting areas of Central Pennsylvania and Upstate New York.

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Make sure to download the NBC Connecticut App to get the very latest information on our weather threat. You can also track the rain using Interactive Radar.


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<![CDATA[Timing & Impacts of Strong Sunday Storm]]> Fri, 27 Oct 2017 11:59:07 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/CoverPhotoSundayMonday.png The team of meteorologists here at NBC Connecticut continue to track a strong storm that will move into the state Sunday and continue into the early morning hours of Monday. The storm is expected to bring with it heavy rain which could result in flooding and strong winds which could cause tree damage. Check out the gallery below which shows the hour by hour forecast through the weekend in addition to the expected impacts from this storm system.]]> <![CDATA[Lingering Questions About Sunday's Storm]]> Fri, 27 Oct 2017 07:04:19 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/p120i.gif

It's going to be a big storm - there's no doubt about that. The question is how bad will it be here in Connecticut as it moves north. That's an open question.

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Above is the National Weather Service rainfall forecast showing a widespread 3"-4" of rain across the region. But that's by no means a sure bet. Take a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for over 2 inches of rain. With the exception of the Litchfield Hills the odds are less than 50/50. 

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The amount of rain is highly dependent on the storm's track as it comes north. How far east or how far west. We just don't know yet but there is the potential for high end totals given the amount of tropical moisture involved AND the amount of lift in the atmosphere.

The second question left is the potential for strong damaging winds. We have an old fashioned Euro vs GFS battle going on here. The American model develops the storm a bit later than it's European counterpart. It's weaker and farther east. This would shift the damaging wind threat well north and east of Connecticut. The European model has the storm nearing peak intensity just west of us which would introduce the potential for 60 mph wind gusts.

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In the end it's hard to know which model will be right. Both seem like reasonable solutions and both are supported to varying extents by their ensemble members. Keep in mind that this storm is the result of a complex interaction of tropical moisuture from the Caribbean and a bit jet stream distrbance diving south from Canada. There's a lot that can go wrong.

A way to visualize the possible scenarios is to look at the Euro Ensemble surface low positions late Sunday night. Each "L" represents one of 51 European model solutions with each number indicating the strength. There are some super deep and powerful storms and some that aren't all that impressive. Some storms are as far west as Pennsylvania and some storms are off the Cape! We need the model spread to shrink in order to get more specific. 

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For now be prepared for damaging winds and the potential for flooding on Sunday. While both are possible they are by no means guaranteed. We've erased our yearly rainfall deficits after this week's rain so I'm OK with a more tame Sunday storm!


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<![CDATA[Flooding and Wind Threat Sunday Into Monday]]> Fri, 27 Oct 2017 10:51:35 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Cover+Photo+RPM.png

Our team of meteorologists continue to track a strong weather system that will be capable of flash flooding and strong damaging winds.

The NBC Connecticut First Alert Weather Team has issued a First Alert for Sunday into early Monday morning. 

This article will take you throught the impacts, timing, and weather setup.

IMPACTS: 

Flooding: Parts of the state have received over 5 inches in the last few days. This has caused the year to date rainfall deficit to be depleted and turned into a surplus for much of the state.

While it's still a bit early to focus on rainfall total specifics for this weekend parts of the state could receive another 2 to even 4 inches of rain throughout the event with a few isolated areas receiving higher numbers. 

The additional rainfall will likely lead to another round of flash flooding throughout the state. Especially in the areas that are prone to flooding.

In addition to flash flooding we're concerned about the threat for river flooding.

The small rivers and tributaries throughout the state can rise rather quickly. If you live along a small river pay close attention to the forecast over the next day or so. 

Bigger rivers like the Connecticut River will continue to rise with a forecasted crest in the Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame. 

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Wind:

The wind setup depends on exactly where the area of low pressure tracks. A track to the west of Connecticut would bring the strongest winds to the state while a track to the east would bring weaker winds.

Right now most of our computer guidance bring the area of low pressure to the west of Connecticut which would result in strong wind gusts out of the south.

Strong winds could result in more damaging winds throughout the state which would cause power outages. 

TIMING: 

We're forecasting scattered showers to develop first thing Sunday morning and become more widespread as we head into the ladder part of the morning.

Rainfall rates as well as the wind will increase as we head throughout the afternoon into the evening. Right now it appears the strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. For more on the timing check out First Alert Future Radar below. 

First Alert Future Radar at 7:00 A.M. Sunday

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First Alert Future Radar at 7:00 P.M. Sunday

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First Alert Future Radar at 6:00 A.M. Monday

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WEATHER SETUP:

You may be asking why we're forecasting so much rain. The rain we're forecasting is the result of moisture being transferred from areas near Cuba north along the eastern seaboard. It's what we call an atmospheric river. 

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<![CDATA[Growing Signals for a Powerful Weekend Storm]]> Wed, 25 Oct 2017 20:58:13 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/GFSMA_prec_prec_102.png

All of our reliable computer model guidance shows a powerful east coast storm heading toward New England on Sunday. The devil, as always, is in the details with the exact impacts far from certain here in Connecticut.

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Starting with the big picture there's a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea that shows some small signs of development into a tropical system. A large blob of moisture between Cuba and Mexico is going to stream north over the weekend as a powerful storm forms. Part of the uncertainty with the forecast is whether or not a tropical storm forms in the Caribbean or if it is just moisture advecting north. Regardless, a strong storm will still impact the northeastern U.S.

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As the moisture lifts north there will also be a powerful coupled jet streak signature. One jet streak over Quebec and a second off the Carolinas will provide an environment that will favor strong rising motion and a strengthening storm. In essence, the right entrance region of the Canadian jet streak and the left exit region of the Mid Atlantic jet streak will line up right over southern New England. This is a strong signal for a big storm.

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Not surprisingly, all of our models show a strong signal for both heavy rain and powerful winds. The GFS ensemble M-Climate rainfall forecasts (comparing this computer model to previous runs of the model) are maxed out at this lead time. That is a strong signal for flooding rain which isn't a surprise given the upper level setup and the amount of moisture coming north.

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With a strong storm nearby there will be the risk for strong, damaging winds as well. Already low level wind anomalies approaching 3 standard deviations are showing up on our models.

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How much wind and how much rain we get will be determined based on where the storm tracks. A rough way of looking at this is that the heaviest precipitation will likely reside west of the storm's track and the strongest winds will be east of the storm's track. A storm track over Cape Cod vs a storm track over New Jersey would make a huge difference in actual outcomes.

At this point be prepared for another round of flooding and tree damage and power outages. How bad either will be is to be determined but this one certainly bears watching.


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<![CDATA[Drought Busting Rain for Parts of the State]]> Wed, 25 Oct 2017 16:41:59 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/COVER+PHOTO3.png

Rainfall from Tuesday night and Wednesday morning was enough to put a serious dent in the year to date deficit throughout the state.

Windsor Locks picked up 4.63" which was the biggest rainfall since Irene in 2011. The rainfall total replaced a 3.2" deficit with at 1.43" surplus from year to date. 

Bridgeport was in a 4.2" deficit however with the two day rainfall totaling 3.88" it brought that deficit to only 0.32".

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The deficits will be replaced by a surplus statewide with another round of heavy rain forecasted this weekend.

For more on the weekend wind and rain threat click here.


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<![CDATA[Rain Winding Down Today, First Alert for Sunday]]> Thu, 26 Oct 2017 11:31:12 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Sunday+Monday+FA.png

Heavy to moderate rain fell this morning, creating some issues for the commute and more rain is on the way this weekend.

The NBC Connecticut First Alert weather team has issued a First Alert Sunday into Monday. 

Parts of the state experienced over 5 inches of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. 

We're tracking another system that will move into the state Sunday into Monday which will likely bring another round of heavy rain. This could lead to more flash flooding throughout the state.

In addition to flash flooding there is also a threat for strong winds which could lead to tree damage. 

]]>
<![CDATA[Impacts and Timing of Tonight's Storm System]]> Tue, 24 Oct 2017 17:22:48 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Timing+and+impacts.png ]]> <![CDATA[More Rain Coming After a Month-Worth of Rain in 2 Days]]> Wed, 25 Oct 2017 09:20:50 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Barnum+Avenue+Between+Kent+and+Sage1.jpg

Parts of Connecticut received a months worth of rain over two days and more periods of rain are likely today, with scattered showers tonight and a chance for more showers tomorrow. 

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast with heavy rain Sunday and Sunday night before diminishing on Monday.

The highest rainfall totals from the storm from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning were in eastern Fairfield and western New Haven counties. 

The highest rainfall total recorded was in Ansonia with just under 5 inches of rain. 

Seymour is dealing with leaves down and minor flooding Wednesday morning and police are asking people who live and work in town to be cautious during the morning commute.

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The high rainfall totals led to flash flooding throughout the state. Take a look at the situation late Tuesday night on the Bridgeport/Stratford line. 

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In addition to the heavy rain the other significant factor with the storm system was damaging winds.

Winds gusted over 40 miles per hour in parts of the state, which led to thousands of power outages on Tuesday. 

A tree came down onto power lines on Mattabassett Street in Bristol just before 4 a.m. Wednesday. In Willington, a tree came down on Cowles Road. 

Country Club Road and Miner Street in Middletown are closed after trees came down on wires.

In Madison, a tree came down on wires over railroad tracks near Scotland Road, suspending Amtrak service.

In Newington, wires came down o Maple Hill Avenue, closing the road.

Eversource reported 4,300 outages throughout the state as of midnight, with the highest outages in eastern Connecticut, including the towns of Plainfield and Preston. Power has since been restored for thousands.

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Check out interactive radar which shows scattered showers continuing throughout the state.

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Photo Credit: NBC Connecticut
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<![CDATA[Big Autumn Storm Moves In]]> Mon, 23 Oct 2017 20:39:01 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/DM1PwrqX0AA_8-w.jpg

Powerful winds, flash flooding and even severe thunderstorms. There's a lot to talk about with the Tuesday storm. Let's start with the rain.

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Flash flooding is a possibility in some areas with locally heavy rain totals expected. On average 1.5"-3.0" of rain is forecast but I would not be surprised to see a localized pocket of as much as 5" of rain! The most likely location for this is in western Connecticut in a handful of towns. Our high resolution models show the potential for some big totals including the RPM (pictured below) which prints out nearly 6" of rain parts of the Litchfield Hills.

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The good news is our recent stretch of dry weather will mitigate the river flood threat. Smaller rivers and streams may see flooding but the bigger rivers such as the Farmington, Housatonic and Connecticut will stay in their banks.

While scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the day on Tuesday the heaviest rain will be centered on Tuesday evening and overnight.

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The other issue tomorrow will be strong and damaging winds. Something called a low level jet will develop across Connecticut during the day tomorrow. This occurs often. The question is how much of the strong winds in the low level jet will mix down to the ground. Hurricane force winds 3,000 feet above our heads can exist with barely a puff of wind at the ground! In this case there seems to be a bit more mixing than we typically see in these events which should promote strong and gusty winds across the state. Our forecast is for 45 to 60 mph wind gusts peaking Tuesday evening and night.

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The other thing we'll have to watch tomorrow is the possibility for severe thunderstorms. This is a setup known as a low CAPE/high shear setup. While these don't always produce with such strong low level shear any thunderstorm that does develop need to be watched closely. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible. 


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<![CDATA[Heavy Rain & Damaging Wind Possible]]> Mon, 23 Oct 2017 10:23:48 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/NAMMA_925_spd_060.png

Quite an autumn storm is moving toward Connecticut and we're becoming more confident in a period of strong, damaging winds along with heavy rain. The worst of the storm will be Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Possible impacts from the storm include:

  • Strong, damaging winds of 50-60 mph in some towns.
  • Scattered power outages and downed trees.
  • Heavy rain and localized urban flooding.

The wind will begin to pick up Tuesday morning across Connecticut with a stead increase through the day and into the evening. The reason for the wind will be a strong pressure gradient between an area of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes. 

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With that pressure difference the winds will really roar above our heads Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Winds will reach well over 60 mph about 2,000 feet above the ground out of the south. 

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The question is how much of that wind will mix down to the ground and how much will remain bottled up just above our heads. It all comes down to how stable (or unstable) the atmosphere is. Typically, a shallow layer of stable air near the ground protects us from the powerful winds above our heads. Another factor can be whether or not thunderstorms can create vertical circulations (updrafts & downdrafts) that are able to transport stronger winds from aloft to the ground. What is somewhat unique Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM is that there is not much stability near the ground AND there's a bit of instability aloft which may promote thunderstorm development. Both of those factors make us concerned about damaging winds.

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Besides strong gusty winds from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning there may be enough instability to trigger a severe thunderstorm or two. We will have to watch the radar very closely. While not likely there will be sufficient wind shear for tornadoes to develop. With most trees still covered in leaves the threat for tree damage is a bit higher than it would typically be this time of year.

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The other issue with this storm will be heavy rain. Plenty of moisture and a slow moving cold front will result in several periods of torrential downpours. Flood issues should remain relatively minor given our recent spell of dry weather, however a few pockets of urban street flooding are certainly possible.

We'll keep you posted on the storm as it draws closer!



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<![CDATA[Heavy Rain, Damaging Winds Through Wednesday Morning]]> Tue, 24 Oct 2017 16:10:21 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/214*120/Point-Beach-Drive-Milford.jpg

NBC Connecticut meteorologists have issued a First Alert for heavy rain and gusty winds. 

Scattered showers and downpours moved into the state this morning, with winds gusting at 20 to 30 miles per hour and causing some tree issues. As of 2:30 p.m., wind gusts have reached 40 miles per hour in Bridgeport and at Bradley Airport.

A flash flood watch has been issued for northern Connecticut.

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The Cross Sound Ferry Seajet was canceled today due to the weather.

Eversource reported 5,000 power outages around 4:30 p.m. Tuesday and United Illuminating reported nearly 600 customers without power.

Winds will increase with a rising chance for showers and even a thunderstorm.

Winds will gust between 45 and 60 mph, which could lead to scattered tree damage and power outages. 

By tonight and early Wednesday morning, heavy rain will become widespread with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain. Widespread flooding is not anticipated although pockets of urban street flooding are possible.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms might develop in a few towns as pockets of instability move overhead.

The threat for damaging wind will end by daybreak Wednesday although rain might linger through the day.  

Read more about the science behind the storm on Ryan Hanrahan's blog: On Ryan's Radar.

Track conditions using the NBC Connecticut interactive radar. 

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                            <span class="span-text">LEGEND</span>
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                            <p><strong>Outage Map</strong> </p>
                            <p>Number of customer outages in each town :</p>
                            <table>
                                <tbody><tr>
                                    <td class="eightThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>&gt; 15,000</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="seventhThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>10,001 -  15,000</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="sixthThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>5,001-  10,000</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="fifthThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>2,501 - 5,000</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="forthThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>1,001 - 2,500</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="thirdThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>501 - 1000</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="secondThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>101 - 500</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="firstThreshhold"></td>
                                    <td>1 - 100</td>
                                </tr>
                                <tr>
                                    <td class="nonserviced"></td>
                                    <td>Served by other utility</td>
                                </tr>

                            </tbody></table>

                            <br>
                            <br>
                            <p>Last updated at: <span id="lastUpdatedTime">10/24/2017 5:02:16 PM</span></p>
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                                            <img id="showOutageReportImg" alt="View Outage Report" src="images/outages1.png"></a>
                                        </td>
                                        <td>
                                            <a id="viewOutage" href="#" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#outageDetailContainer">View Outage Report</a>
                                        </td>
                                    </tr>
                                    <tr>
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                                            <img id="Img1" alt="View Outage Report" src="images/grid.gif"></a>
                                        </td>
                                        <td><a id="viewPercentOutage" href="#" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#outagePercentDetailContainer">View Towns by % of Customer Outages</a></td>
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                            <br>
                            <p class="panelcontent-spacing">
                                Total Eversource Customers Served in CT:<strong><br>
                                    <span id="totalCustomers">1,266,357</span></strong>
                            </p>
                            <p class="panelcontent-spacing">
                                Total Eversource Customer Outages in CT:<strong><br>
                                    <span id="totalCustomersOut">3,570</span></strong>
                            </p>
                            <p class="panelcontent-spacing">
                                Percentage of Eversource Customers Affected in CT:<strong><br>
                                    <span id="percentTotalOut">&lt;1</span>%</strong>
                            </p>
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                            <p><strong>Other Eversource Maps</strong> </p>
                            <a href="/wmeco/outage/outagemap.aspx" target="_blank">Western Massachusetts Outage Map</a><br><br><br>
                            <a href="/psnh/outage/outagemap.aspx" target="_blank">New Hampshire Outage Map</a><br><br><br>
                            <a href="/nstar/outage/outagemap.aspx" target="_blank">Eastern Massachusetts Outage Map</a> <br>       
                           

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Photo Credit: NBCConnecticut.com
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<![CDATA[Warm Weekend and an Unsettled Week Ahead]]> Fri, 20 Oct 2017 20:35:23 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Evening_forecast_on_October20th2017_1200x675_1078177859921.jpg

Another incredibly warm weekend is ahead of us with temperatures making a run at 80 degrees Saturday. The record for the day is 82F set back in 1920. Already this fall has been the warmest on record (9/1-10/20) and we'll tack on a bit more to those big anomalies by Sunday. 

[[451985673, C]]

Beyond the weekend's warmth my attention is shifting to a storm moving in on Tuesday. A deep trough of low pressure and a connection of tropical moisture will allow a strong storm to develop. With a strong area of high pressure to our east and the low to the west the wind will roar later Tuesday. This sounding from the GFS computer model shows winds of hurricane force only 2,000 feet above the ground! While not all of this will reach the ground strong wind gusts are certainly a possibility.

[[451985773, C, 501, 613]]

Additionally, unusually warm water temperatures will help keep the atmosphere a bit more mixed than we typically see in these southerly flow setups. A lot of times in fall and winter cold water temperatures lead to a shallow layer of stability that prevents stronger wind from mixing down to the ground.

The extent of the damaging wind threat is still unclear. How strong the storm is, and where it tracks, will determine how strong the winds will get. The other wild card is whether enough instability develops for thunderstorms to form. We'll be watching this closely!


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<![CDATA[What a La Nina Winter Means for Connecticut]]> Fri, 20 Oct 2017 06:43:45 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/La+Nina+Forecast.png

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their outlook for the 2017-2018 winter.

Cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific near the equator will result in a La Nina winter.

[[451697723, C]]

A La Nina winter favors warmer than normal temperatures for Connecticut. This doesn't mean that we won't have cold periods this winter. It just means the average temperature over the winter will be slightly above normal.

[[451696653, C]]

As for precipitation, it appears all of the East Coast can experience near average numbers.

[[451697293, C]]

While this forecast should get you thinking about the upcoming winter it's really only one of several variables that we look at when determining how much snow will fall.

There's very little correlation between the La Nina phase and how much snow we get here in Connecticut. 


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<![CDATA[Parts of Connecticut Back in a Drought]]> Thu, 19 Oct 2017 16:27:30 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Almanac+Drought.png

Below normal rainfall over the past few months has led to parts of Connecticut being placed back into a moderate drought. 

The Climate Prediction Center released an update Thursday morning which has Windham, Tolland, and Hartford counties in a moderate drought.

[[451692243, C]]

Parts of northern New London and Middlesex counties are also included. 

Windsor Locks from year to date is running approximately 2.5 inches below normal. 

Connecticut needs a few heavy rain storms before the drought would be removed. 


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<![CDATA[Record Warm Fall]]> Wed, 18 Oct 2017 20:46:39 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Evening_Forecast_for_October_18_1200x675_1076255811713.jpg

Meteorological fall is defined as September, October, and November and this is the warmest start to fall we've seen on record. More than 47 days in we're absolutely roasting. 

Of the last 113 starts to fall this fall has been the warmest. The mean temperature in the Hartford area season-to-date is 65.4 degrees. According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center a temperature like this in fall is more typical of Roanoke, VA than Hartford, CT. 

In New Haven the average temperature this season is 66.4 degrees of 4.3 degrees above normal. This would equate to what a fall is typically like in Philadelphia, PA.

It's no surprise with temperatures this warm our fall foliage is behind schedule. Leaves change color as chlorophyll breaks downs allowing a leaf's yellow and orange pigment to become dominant.  Typically, the fall colors occur around the same time every year as the biggest factor in chlorophyll breakdown is the shortening days and longer nights. 

This year, however, it's been so warm the chlorophyll is breaking down slower than usual in most trees according to UConn Extension Forester Thomas Worthley. He also points out foliar fungi on sugar maples following a wet summer have sent those trees into early dormancy. 

Even across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine fall colors are way behind schedule. This satellite image from GOES-16 shows hues of orange and red in the mountains of northern New England. Here in southern New England (outside of the Berkshires) things remain quite green. That said, we're expecting vibrant colors to pop in about a week which is a remarkable two weeks behind schedule in the Northwest Hills. Peak color in the Hartford area likely won't be until just before Halloween. 


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<![CDATA[First Frosts are Getting Later and Later]]> Tue, 17 Oct 2017 19:06:14 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/160*120/DMVmrzgVQAEgfZr.jpg

The growing season is getting longer and longer and our first freeze is occuring later and later in fall. While this may be good news for your backyard garden it's yet another local symptom of climate change. 

[[451353883, C]]

The numbers are quite striking. Since 1970 Climate Central found that the average first freeze (32 degrees) in Hartford is occuring nearly 12 days later now than it did 47 years ago. The meticulously maintained weather records in Norfolk at the Great Mountain Forest show a similarly disturbing trend. 

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Since records began in 1943 the average first freeze has moved from September 26 to October 15! That is 19 days based on a linear regression analysis. The average last freeze in spring has also gotten earlier and earlier as the earth has warmed.

The Environmental Protection Agency found that the growing season across the contiguous 48 states as increased by 2 weeks on average. There are both good and bad things that can come from a longer growing season according to the EPA.

Changes in the length of the growing season can have both positive and negative effects on the yield and prices of particular crops. Overall, warming is expected to have negative effects on yields of major crops, but crops in some individual locations may benefit.1 A longer growing season could allow farmers to diversify crops or have multiple harvests from the same plot. However, it could also limit the types of crops grown, encourage invasive species or weed growth, or increase demand for irrigation. A longer growing season could also disrupt the function and structure of a region’s ecosystems and could, for example, alter the range and types of animal species in the area.

So when is the average first freeze of the year? Based on the 1981-2010 normals the average first freeze at Hartford Bradley International Airport is on October 13 and at Bridgeport Sikorsky Airport November 3. 


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<![CDATA[Ophelia Strikes Ireland]]> Mon, 16 Oct 2017 20:51:45 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/218*120/DMRBfcMXcAMubgX.jpg

After a wind gust to 118 mph in County Cork parts of the Irish countryside are littered with debris following Storm Ophelia. The storm was a remarkable one.

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Hurricane Ophelia strengthened to a category 3 hurricane near the Azores and was a hurricane as late as 11 p.m. Sunday night just hours before striking Ireland. With the exception of Hurricane Debbie (1961) this is the farthest northeast a hurricane has been observed in the Atlantic Ocean.

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The cold water around Ireland is not hospitable to hurricanes, however. Ophelia lost its tropical characteristics as expected before making landfall on the Dingle Peninsula early Monday. While the storm was no longer a hurricane - much like Sandy - it didn't weaken. In fact, Ophelia strengthened as it continued to get its energy from the a powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic. 

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Ireland is no stranger to powerful Autumn and winter storms though Ophelia was one of the stronger ones in recent years. 400,000 utility customers lost power from the storm and there was quite a bit of structural damage in Counties Cork and Kerry. Storm surge flooding was quite widespread in some areas on the southern and western coasts of of Ireland - including Galway.

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One incredible side effect of Ophelia was the storm's wind managed to fan wildfires in Portugal and the storm's circulation sucked the smoke north into the United Kingdom. In London, the afternoon sky turned a creepy orange/red thanks to Ophelia and the horrific wildfires Ophelia helped fan on the Iberian Peninsula. 

A remarkable storm during a remarkable hurricane season. 


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<![CDATA[First Alert: Frost Advisory for Parts of Connecticut]]> Mon, 16 Oct 2017 17:03:52 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Frost+Advisory+%281%29.png

A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas away from the shoreline.

Temperatures by Tuesday morning are expected to fall into the low to middle 30s.

If you have any plants or vegetables you're going to want to either harvest them, cover them with a blanket, or bring them indoors as a frost will likely kill them.



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<![CDATA[Weekend Outlook]]> Thu, 12 Oct 2017 20:17:24 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Nightly_Weather_Forecast_for_October_12_1200x675_1072229443764.jpg

It's a tough forecast for the weekend with a few chances for showers both Saturday and Sunday. What is clear is that warmer air will move in - in fact temperatures on Sunday may come close to 80F in a few towns. 

Typically, as warm air moves in air is forced to rise. This results in clouds and sometimes precipitation. What we're trying to figure out now is whether or not we'll see any rainfall this weekend as warmer air (and moisture) streams in from the Mid Atlantic. 

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Right now it appears that a sprinkle or two is possible Saturday and a few showers are possible Sunday morning. A cold front sweeps in Sunday night and a period of lovely October-like weather moves in for early next week. 

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By the end of the 10 day forecast there is a signal for warmer air buidling back in with a large ridge of high pressure. Record warmth is possible in parts of New England, the Great Lakes, and southeastern Canadaby the weekend of October 21-22. 


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<![CDATA[First Alert: Frost for Parts of the State]]> Thu, 12 Oct 2017 17:25:17 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/212*120/frost+advisory.JPG

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are forecasting temperatures to fall into the low 30s for parts of the state which could result in frost.

Clear skies, calm winds, and low dew points is the perfect recipe for a cold night here in Connecticut and that's exactly what we're expecting. 

Temperatures in the valley locations of the state will fall into the low to middle 30s. Temperatures will remain a bit milder for the city locations and the shoreline. 

A Frost Advisory is in effect for the northern half of Connecticut.

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The coldest temperatures are expected through portions of Litchfield, Tolland, and Windham counties.

Take a look at low temperatures around the state.

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Temperatuers in northern Litchfield county are expected to fall to near 32 degrees in Salisbury, Norfolk, and Colebrook.

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Temperatures in the quiet corner will be cold as well. We're forecasting areas like Quinebuag, Stafford Springs, and Ashford to fall into the low 30s.

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<![CDATA[Nate Remnants Move Through Connecticut]]> Mon, 09 Oct 2017 22:33:27 -0500 https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/213*120/Cover+Story+Photo.png

NBC Connecticut Meteorologists are continuing to track the remnants of Nate as it moves through Connecticut. 

The main impacts with this system will be scattered showers with embedded heavy downpours and gusty winds. 

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An area of low pressure is tracking to the north of Connecticut. 

First Alert Future Radar at 4 p.m. shows moderate showers statewide with winds increasing out of the south.

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Parts of the state are expected to see rainfall totals up to 1 inch.

Winds are forecasted to be sustained at 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Higher gusts are possible along the shoreline.

Make sure to stay with the NBC Connecticut First Alert weather team on air and online for the very latest on Monday's First Alert.


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