Monday Nor'Easter Trends Colder - NBC Connecticut
On Ryan's Radar

On Ryan's Radar

First Alert Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan Gives You His Take on Connecticut's Weather

Monday Nor'Easter Trends Colder

On Ryan's Radar

NBC Connecticut First Alert meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan gives you the science behind the forecast and shares with you an in-depth look at the weather impacting Connecticut.

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Early Morning Weather Forecast for October 19

Signals remain strong for an impressive coastal storm Monday and Tuesday off the coast of New England. A decent high pressure to the north and a strong low pressure to the south will create a substantial pressure gradient across the region.

NAEFS showing strong negative U wind anomalies. This is a classic signature for heavy precipitation.

It's no surprise that with a pressure gradient like this the low level zonal wind anomalies are quite substantial - exceeding -4 standard deviations! With such large anomalies there are all sorts of hazards that we'll have to watch for including excessive precipitation and damaging wind.

Evening Weather Forecast for January 19Evening Weather Forecast for January 19

(Published Thursday, Jan. 19, 2017)

The questions I posed yesterday about this storm still remain. The most intriguing possibility is a trend to a slightly colder storm. Even with a very mild antecedent air mass this storm may just be able to threat the needle and produce some snow in parts of southern New England - especially in the elevated interior. Sleet remains quite likely for a period of time as well across the state. 

The European Ensembles show decent odds (>50%) of more than 3" of snow in Litchfield County later Monday and Tuesday. While heavy snow is very unlikely in the valley and shoreline I can't rule out heavy snow in the interior hills. 

With such a strong low level jet (winds near hurricane force a couple thousand feet above our heads) we'll also have to be concerned about damaging winds along the shoreline. This won't be a major issue (i.e. it happens a couple times per winter) but I could forsee scattered power outages and wind gusts up to 60 mph. 

This should be an interesting storm!