It's likely that a coastal storm will be in the vicinity of the East Coast next week.
The threat of any kind of storm along the East Coast will generate buzz, so this is the "First Alert" of that potential. NBC Connecticut first delivered news of the potential storm this past Wednesday.
The upper level energy that will trigger the formation of the surface low pressure center is still well out over the Pacific Ocean, so not much is known about the evolution of next week's storm.
The timing appears to be midweek.
First Alert meteorologists are fairly confident in one thing: the lack of cold air.
The North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, is forecast to be positive next week, though it will be plunging at the time of the storm. A positive NAO means there's a fairly strong pressure gradient over the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in strong westerly winds (blowing west to east) and a lack of blocking.
Without blocking, it is easy for storms to simply glide east out over the Atlantic Ocean.
Thus, there appears to be two options for Connecticut in this early stage of the game:
- Storm forms and misses
- Storm forms, hits and brings rain
Welcome to December 2015, sponsored by El Niño.