Saturday Questions - NBC Connecticut
On Ryan's Radar

On Ryan's Radar

First Alert Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan Gives You His Take on Connecticut's Weather

Saturday Questions

On Ryan's Radar

NBC Connecticut First Alert meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan gives you the science behind the forecast and shares with you an in-depth look at the weather impacting Connecticut.

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Nightly Weather Forecast for October 20

To say the Thursday night through Saturday forecast is uncertain is a bit of an understatement. The forecast from yesterday is quite a bit different today. Even with that change, the spread among our different computer models remains quite large!

Nightly Weather Forecast for July 25Nightly Weather Forecast for July 25

NBC Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan has the evening weather forecast on July25th,2017

(Published Tuesday, July 25, 2017)

One way to view the uncertainty in the forecast is to use ensembles. Basically one computer model is run 20 different times with slightly different tweaks to represent a range in plausible scenarios. When all 20 show the same thing you can assume the forecast is high confidence and when all 20 are all over the place you can assume forecast confidence is low.

GFS Ensemble preciptation valid 8 a.m.-2 p.m. Saturday. You can see the large spread in the different ensemble members with some solutions totally dry and others quite wet. A low confidence forecast.

So what will happen? Right now we've put a chance for showers in the forecast Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with one system moving in and then a second round of showers Saturday night. If we can time everything out we'll salvage a mainly dry Friday (day) and Saturday (day).