Another Round of Showers - NBC Connecticut
On Ryan's Radar

On Ryan's Radar

First Alert Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan Gives You His Take on Connecticut's Weather

Another Round of Showers

On Ryan's Radar

NBC Connecticut First Alert meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan gives you the science behind the forecast and shares with you an in-depth look at the weather impacting Connecticut.

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Early Morning Weather Forecast for August 22

The forecast challenge today is once again about weekend rain. At this point it appears the best chance for rain is Saturday morning - and there are some indications a period of locally heavy rain is possible. 

Evening Forecast for Aug. 10Evening Forecast for Aug. 10

(Published Thursday, Aug. 10, 2017)

How much rain is a big question. Take the Short Range Ensemble Forecast model, or SREF, for instance. It shows a range from nearly 0" of rain to 3" of rain on Saturday - the bulk of which falls in the morning. The biggest clustering of ensemble members is <0.5" of rain - so it's fair to say that while heavy rain is possible it's not the most likely outcome. A lighter rain event remains the most plausible scenario.

By Saturday midday and afternoon even though the clouds stick around we should get a period of drier weather. A renewed chance for showers develops by Saturday evening as a trough of low pressure advances in from the west.

A dip in the jet stream pictured here will scoot over New England Saturday evening. This trough of low pressure will provide lift in the atmosphere and a renewed risk for showers. This is the GFS 500mb height/vorticity map valid Saturday evening.

Beyond Saturday much nicer weather moves in for Sunday and Monday. There is a low risk for showers on Tuesday with a weak wave of low pressure to our south but at this point things are looking pretty good for next week.