Tropical Storm Joaquin Likely to Turn North | NBC Connecticut

Tropical Storm Joaquin Likely to Turn North

Moisture could cause flooding issues this weekend

(Published Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2015)

Tropical Storm Joaquin will threaten the United States late this week, but there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the storm's track.

Blocking high pressure in the north Atlantic would normally mean the storm couldn't track out the sea. That's still the forecast. However, some models slow the storm down so much so that it sneaks east underneath the ridge of high pressure.

Joaquin still expected to come north, but a wide range in model solutions exists.

One major reason the track has changed considerably in just the last 24 hours is the lack of strong steering winds. Without notable wind at 18,000 feet above sea level, the storm just meanders along.

The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to drift west and southwest towards the Bahamas before finally taking a sharp turn to the north Friday night. But, it cautions the public that the forecast is very low confidence.

Joaquin will take a sharp turn north late this week as a category one hurricane.

"It should be repeated that the confidence in the track forecast is very low," the hurricane center said in its 11 a.m. update Tuesday morning.

Once the storm turns north, it will rapidly increase its forward motion. It's possible that the storm strengthens into a category one hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

While a direct hit is unlikely in Connecticut, there's a large amount of moisture with Joaquin. This means another rainstorm is likely this weekend. The timing is up in the air given the changeable track of Joaquin.

With round one of rain dumping several inches on Connecticut Wednesday, any additional rain this weekend means an increased threat for flooding. River flooding isn't a major concern midweek, but even with the drought it could become a concern this weekend.

Stay clear of bad information and hype that may circulate on social media, which is bound to happen given Joaquin's ominous-looking forecast track.

The First Alert weather team will have the latest information on-air and online all week long.

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