Challenging Christmas Forecast

To say that there's a lot of uncertainty about the Christmas forecast would be a big understatement. A huge push of Arctic cold will be moving south out of Canada while moisture will be moving northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Earlier I tweeted about the difference in our computer guidance for 12/25. Obviously it's a lot more complex than just picking a random computer model out of thin air but the bigger take away is that there is a tremendous amount of spread in possible outcomes.

Looking a bit more closely at our afternoon guidance we can see a few things. The most important part of the forecast is how far east the storm coming up the coast gets - for instance an offshore storm is more likely to produce cold and a wintry mix here in Connecticut while an inland storm (commonly referred to as an inland cutter) would bring rain. My gut feeling is a warmer/western solution is most likely with mainly rain. Below are the GFS aned European Ensembles (both models are run 20 and 50 different times, respectively, to produce a range of possile outcomes). 13 of the 20 GFS ensembles produce more than an inch of snow in Hartford on Chritsmas while about 25% of the European Ensembles do.

The current forecast I have for Bradley Airport is 38F and rain on Christmas but this may certainly change in the coming days. Stay tuned!

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