While it will be an unseasonably warm start to February, ensemble forecast systems are showing a pattern change at the end of the first week of the new month.
A ridge builds in the west while a trough forms over the eastern portion of the country.
This alone means below average temperatures and the potential for storms, but North Atlantic blocking is needed to keep the storms from simply scooting out to sea.
There is some blocking being modeled over the North Atlantic, but not a lot. Also, the blocking is farther from Greenland than it would be in an ideal setup.
Bottom line, even though it warms up and turns quiet to close the month of January and begin February, it won't last.
The potential exists for an East Coast storm as the first week of February ends and the second week of the new month begins. More probable is that it will turn colder as well.
