Much Needed Soaking Rain on the Way - NBC Connecticut
On Ryan's Radar

On Ryan's Radar

First Alert Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan Gives You His Take on Connecticut's Weather

Much Needed Soaking Rain on the Way

On Ryan's Radar

NBC Connecticut First Alert meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan gives you the science behind the forecast and shares with you an in-depth look at the weather impacting Connecticut.

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Morning Forecast for Oct. 18

Finally - a solid chance at a heavy rainstorm across most of the state. We've needed this for a while! This won't end the drought but it may very well put a dent in it. The WPC forecast has a bullseye of 3" over parts of Connecticut - that would be sweet!

The weather setup remains the same as it has looked for the last few days of computer model runs. A giant cut-off low over Minnesota with different spokes of energy rotating around the low. We get two such spokes to deal with - one on Tuesday and another later Wednesday into Thursday. 

Initially I was concerned about a bit of icing at the onset on Tuesday but that seems like it will be a very minor deal. Can't rule it out but I'm not expecting any major issues.

How much rain we get still is a bit of an open question. Odds are very, very high of more than an inch or rain across the state. The European Ensemble is not as bullish with excessive 2"+ rainfall amounts (in fact has a <10% chance of seeing that in the Hartford area) but the GFS ensembles are.

The difference between the European and GFS solutions appears to be with whether or not a secondary low develops near the coast and how far north the warm front/triple point gets. Still a lot of time to work out the details but at this point it's fair to say 1"-2" of rain is a very good bet across the state with a lower risk for 2"+. It should all wind down around midday Thursday.