NOAA Releases Updated Hurricane Forecast

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Around the beginning of August every, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updates its annual hurricane forecast as we head into the peak of hurricane season.

To no real surprise, the updated outlook continues to favor an above-normal season as we head into the most active period for hurricane activity. But the good news is, hurricane forecasters did say in the update Wednesday that they’re not expecting a record-breaking season like last year.

“Given the increase in the number of named storms and hurricanes, there is now a 65% chance for an above-normal season and a 25% chance for a near-normal season with a 10% chance for a below-normal season,” said Matthew Rosecrans, the Hurricane Season Outlook Lead for NOAA.

Because we’re already on our fifth named storm of the season, the updated forecast brings the expected number of named storms to 15-21, 7-10 of which are expected to become hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. And just because there has been little tropical activity over the past several weeks doesn’t mean we’re behind schedule.

“Normally during June and July, we only have two named storms, and we’ve already had five this year,” Rosecrans said. “So we’re already ahead of the pace, so the quiet period just brought us a little closer to normal.”

The peak months for hurricane season are August through October. Connecticut is no stranger to devastating tropical systems either.  

“We lost the roof the first time and second time there was no damage but there were so many trees down in this area you could not access it for about three days.”

Kate and Pete Scanlon experienced the brunt of Irene and Sandy living in West Haven.

“It was terrifying it really was,” Kate said. “We live right on the shoreline and the water came right up to the house, just about, right across the street from it.”

From Irene and Sandy back to back in 2011 and 2012 to Isaias one year ago and Elsa earlier this year, experts say it is so important to always have a severe weather plan in place no matter what part of the state you live in.

“It was just unbelievable what nature can do when it wants to,” Pete said.

If the current NOAA hurricane forecast verifies this year with the number of storms expected, it will be the sixth consecutive above-average season.

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